Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques for use in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

Abstract Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques for use in performance assessments for radioactive waste disposal are reviewed. Summaries are given for the following techniques: differential analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, response surface methodology, and Fourier amplitude sensitivity test. Of these techniques, Monte Carlo analysis is felt to be the most widely applicable for use in performance assessment. Monte Carlo analysis involves five steps: (1) selection of a range and distribution for each input variable; (2) generation of a sample from the input variables; (3) propagation of the sample through the model under consideration; (4) performance of uncertainty analysis; and (5) performance of sensitivity analysis. These steps are discussed and illustrated with an analysis performed as part of a preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP).

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