Sequential Change-Point Detection and Estimation

Abstract Two groups of sequential testing procedures are proposed to detect an abrupt change in the distribution of a sequence of observations: truncated and open ended. They are based on large sample strong approximations of the efficient score vector under the null hypothesis of no change and under the alternative hypothesis. An estimator of the time of change is proposed and its approximate bias is analyzed. The estimation of the new parameters that describe the changed distribution naturally follows.

[1]  J. Doob Heuristic Approach to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Theorems , 1949 .

[2]  H. Robbins,et al.  Boundary Crossing Probabilities for the Wiener Process and Sample Sums , 1970 .

[3]  H. Robbins Statistical Methods Related to the Law of the Iterated Logarithm , 1970 .

[4]  H Robbins,et al.  A sequential test for two binomial populations. , 1974, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[5]  H. Robbins,et al.  Sequential Tests Involving Two Populations , 1974 .

[6]  S. Lalley Repeated likelihood ratio tests for curved exponential families , 1980 .

[7]  L. Yu. Vostrikova,et al.  Detection of a “Disorder” in a Wiener Process , 1982 .

[8]  F. Roush Introduction to Stochastic Integration , 1994 .

[9]  D. Siegmund,et al.  A diffusion process and its applications to detecting a change in the drift of Brownian motion , 1984 .

[10]  D. Siegmund Boundary Crossing Probabilities and Statistical Applications , 1986 .

[11]  H. R. Lerche Boundary Crossing of Brownian Motion , 1986 .

[12]  U. Einmahl Strong Invariance Principles for Partial Sums of Independent Random Vectors , 1987 .

[13]  U. Einmahl,et al.  Extensions of results of Komlo´s, Major, and Tusna´dy to the multivariate case , 1989 .

[14]  L. Horváth,et al.  Weighted Approximations in Probability and Statistics , 1993 .

[15]  D. Siegmund,et al.  A sequential clinical trial for comparing three treatments , 1993 .

[16]  Edit Gombay,et al.  Testing for change-points with rank and sign statistics , 1994 .

[17]  Edit Gombay,et al.  NONPARAMETRIC TRUNCATED SEQUENTIAL CHANGE-POINT DETECTION , 1995 .

[18]  Rebecca A. Betensky,et al.  An O'Brien-Fleming sequential trial for comparing three treatments , 1996 .

[19]  Edit Gombay,et al.  The weighted sequential likelihood ratio , 1996 .

[20]  Edit Gombay,et al.  The likelihood ratio under noncontiguous alternatives , 1997 .

[21]  Muni S. Srivastava,et al.  Quasi-stationary biases of change point and change magnitude estimation after sequential cusum test , 1999 .

[22]  G. Heo,et al.  Nonparametric Tests for Comparing Two Treatments in Sequential Trials , 2001 .