A Bayesian Approach to the Linear Combination of Forecasts
暂无分享,去创建一个
Bayesian methodology is suggested as a valid approach to the combination of forecasts and a simple subjectivist procedure is presented. It is shown how subjective probabilities can be meaningfully assigned over a set of forecasting models and updated, according to a Bayesian process, when the forecast realizations become known.
[1] C. Granger,et al. Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts , 1974 .
[2] Robert J. Connor,et al. Concepts of Independence for Proportions with a Generalization of the Dirichlet Distribution , 1969 .
[3] J. Dickinson. Some Statistical Results in the Combination of Forecasts , 1973 .
[4] J. M. Bates,et al. The Combination of Forecasts , 1969 .