Probabilistic modelling of auto-correlation characteristics of heterogeneous slopes

Spatial variability of soil materials has long been recognised as an important factor influencing the reliability of geo-structures. This study stochastically investigates the influence of spatial variability of shear strength on the stability of heterogeneous slopes, focusing on the auto-correlation function, auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation between soil parameters. The finite element method is merged with the random field theory to probabilistically evaluate factor of safety and probability of failure via Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation procedure is explained in detail with suggestions on improving efficiency of the Monte-Carlo process. A simple procedure to create cross-correlation between random variables, which allows direct comparison of the influence of each strength variable, is discussed. The results show that the auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation can significantly influence slope stability, while the choice of auto-correlation function only has a minor effect. An equation relating the probability of failure with the auto-correlation distance is suggested in light of the analyses performed in this work and other results from the literature.

[1]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Probabilistic infinite slope analysis , 2011 .

[2]  D. Stoyan,et al.  On the probability of failure of slopes , 1979 .

[3]  J. A. Wolf.  A Plasticity Model to Predict the Effects of Confinement on Concrete , 2008 .

[4]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements , 2004 .

[5]  Norbert R. Morgenstern,et al.  PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF STABILITY OF A CUT SLOPE IN RESIDUAL SOIL , 2005 .

[6]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Bearing-capacity prediction of spatially random c ϕ soils , 2003 .

[7]  Michael A. Hicks,et al.  Influence of heterogeneity on undrained clay slope stability , 2002, Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology.

[8]  Michael A. Hicks,et al.  Stochastic evaluation of static liquefaction in a predominantly dilative sand fill , 2005 .

[9]  A. Drescher,et al.  Slope stability analysis by strength reduction , 1999 .

[10]  Donald E. Myers,et al.  Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering , 2005, Technometrics.

[11]  G. L. Sivakumar Babu,et al.  Effect of soil variability on reliability of soil slopes , 2004 .

[12]  D. V. Griffiths,et al.  Risk Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering , 2008 .

[13]  M Rezaei Pazhand Fffff,et al.  SOIL SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS BY FINITE ELEMENT , 2004 .

[14]  R. Lewis,et al.  Associated and non-associated visco-plasticity and plasticity in soil mechanics , 1975 .

[15]  E. Vanmarcke.  Probabilistic Modeling of Soil Profiles , 1977 .

[16]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Influence of spatial variability on slope reliability using 2-D random fields. , 2009 .

[17]  Claudia Cherubini,et al.  Reliability evaluation of shallow foundation bearing capacity on c', Φ' soils , 2000 .

[18]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Simulation and analysis of random fields , 1990 .

[19]  George Deodatis,et al.  Effects of random heterogeneity of soil properties on bearing capacity , 2005 .

[20]  K. Phoon,et al.  Characterization of Geotechnical Variability , 1999 .

[21]  Farimah Masrouri,et al.  Stochastic finite element method applied to non-linear analysis of embankments , 2000 .

[22]  D. V. Griffiths,et al.  SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS BY FINITE ELEMENTS , 1999 .

[23]  Sebastià Olivella Pastallé,et al.  Numerical formulation for a simulator (CODE_BRIGHT) for the coupled analysis of saline media , 1996 .

[24]  Michal Šejnoha,et al.  Stochastic analysis of failure of earth structures , 2007 .

[25]  Eduardo Alonso,et al.  RISK ANALYSIS OF SLOPES AND ITS APPLICATION TO SLOPES IN CANADIAN SENSITIVE CLAYS , 1976 .