METHODS FOR INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY IN PRELIMINARY SHIP DESIGN

This paper provides a summary of some of the methods used to take uncertainty into account in preliminary ship design calculations. It is not meant to be an exhaustive list but an overview of some of the more important techniques that can be fruitfully employed. In view of the fact that it is often possible to explicitly take account of the inherent uncertainty in a design situation, it may be expected that the quality of the decisions may be somewhat improved in that the consequences of uncertainty in parameter estimation can be clearly seen and expensive mistakes thus avoided. Decisions are seldom exactly right but avoiding the big mistakes can often mean the difference between solvency and bankruptcy.