Towards the electrification of buildings heating - Real heat pumps electricity mixes based on high resolution operational profiles

Abstract The energy transition driven by the need of a deep decarbonization to limit the world temperature rise requires coordinated actions across the whole energy sector. Among other measures, the strong development of renewable energy sources in the power sector is gaining momentum in different parts of the world. The possibility of producing low-carbon electricity leads to a renovated interest in increasing electricity penetration in final sectors, especially in transport and buildings heating. However, a large share of renewable electricity comes from non-dispatchable sources, notably wind and solar PV, and their daily and seasonal variability needs to be matched with the demand profiles of those sectors. In particular, the charge of electric vehicles shows a relatively constant demand on a seasonal basis while attention must be paid on the daily operational logic to fully exploit available power from solar and/or wind. On the other hand, the operation of heat pumps for building heating shows a strong seasonality that may be an issue in countries that have a larger renewable production during summer. This research work is focusing on this specific issue, with the aim of improving the common practice of evaluating energy consumption and emissions on an annual basis, thanks to a detailed analysis based on hourly time-step, both for the electricity generation mix and for the heat pumps demand. To increase the significance of the results, different countries across Europe have been analyzed and compared.