Modeling spatial distribution of amphibian populations: a GIS approach based on habitat matrix permeability

Predictions of occurrence of two amphibian species, the common toad and the alpine newt, were made using information on land use surrounding breeding ponds. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to compile a landuse map, from which permeability estimates (friction) were derived. Potential migration zones based on friction and maximum migration distance were then modeled. Contacts between several migration zones suggest the potential for migration between ponds by adult individuals. The ability of the migration zones to enhance predictions of species occurrence was tested using generalized additive models (GAMs), and several landscape variables were selected as determinants of amphibian presence. The area of a migration zone and the number of ponds within that zone were positively related to both toad and newt presence, suggesting the importance of buffer habitats around each pond in amphibian conservation. Toad presence declined with cultivated field area and newt presence declined with vineyard area, suggesting the negative effect of agricultural activity on amphibians. The friction-based modeling approach improved the prediction of toad presence when compared to a more classical analysis of habitat composition within a circular zone centered on the focal pond. Prediction of newt presence was, however, less accurate than prediction of toad presence. Despite its exploratory nature and the subjectivity of permeability estimates, this study shows the usefulness of GIS in the functional analysis of a landscape, with potential applications in biological conservation. It also highlights the need for improving our knowledge of habitat use by animals.

[1]  David H. Douglas.  Least-cost Path in GIS Using an Accumulated Cost Surface and Slopelines , 1994 .

[2]  R. M’Closkey,et al.  Patterns of nestedness and species association in a pond-dwelling amphibian fauna , 1997 .

[3]  Hubert Gulinck,et al.  Relationship between patch connectivity and the occurrence of the European red squirrel , 1998 .

[4]  H. Pulliam,et al.  Ecological Processes That Affect Populations in Complex Landscapes , 1992 .

[5]  L. Fahrig,et al.  Effect of road traffic on amphibian density , 1995 .

[6]  James H. Brown,et al.  Turnover Rates in Insular Biogeography: Effect of Immigration on Extinction , 1977 .

[7]  James P. Gibbs,et al.  Distribution of woodland amphibians along a forest fragmentation gradient , 1998, Landscape Ecology.

[8]  How does a newt find its pond? The role of chemical cues in migrating newts (Triturus alpestris) , 1993 .

[9]  Mats Gyllenberg,et al.  Minimum Viable Metapopulation Size , 1996, The American Naturalist.

[10]  T. Langton,et al.  Amphibians and roads , 1990 .

[11]  Anthony Lehmann,et al.  GRASP: generalized regression analysis and spatial prediction , 2002 .

[12]  Thomas Madsen,et al.  Breeding pond fidelity in the common toad, Bufo bufo , 1991 .

[13]  S. I. Rubinow,et al.  Some mathematical problems in biology , 1975 .

[14]  C. Miaud,et al.  Fidelity to the breeding site in the alpine newt Triturus Alpestris , 1989, Behavioural Processes.

[15]  J. Wiens.  The Emerging Role of Patchiness in Conservation Biology , 1997 .

[16]  T. Yee,et al.  Generalized additive models in plant ecology , 1991 .

[17]  Malcolm L. Hunter,et al.  Effects of Silvicultural Edges on the Distribution and Abundance of Amphibians in Maine , 1998 .

[18]  H. Aarts,et al.  Routes and speed of migrating toads (Bufo bufo L) a telemetric study , 1986 .

[19]  J. Michael Scott,et al.  Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and Scale , 2002 .

[20]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  The Metapopulation Approach, Its History, Conceptual Domain, and Application to Conservation , 1997 .

[21]  R. Griffiths,et al.  Interspecific associations in tadpoles , 1992, Animal Behaviour.

[22]  R. Levins.  Some Demographic and Genetic Consequences of Environmental Heterogeneity for Biological Control , 1969 .

[23]  R. D. Semlitsch.  Biological Delineation of Terrestrial Buffer Zones for Pond‐Breeding Salamanders , 1998 .

[24]  Angela Lee,et al.  Perspectives on … Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc , 1997 .

[25]  L. Fahrig,et al.  Connectivity is a vital element of landscape structure , 1993 .

[26]  L. Brooker,et al.  Animal Dispersal in Fragmented Habitat: Measuring Habitat Connectivity, Corridor Use, and Dispersal Mortality , 1999 .

[27]  R. S. Oldham,et al.  01. Establishment of populations of the common frog, Rana temporaria , and common toad, Bufo bufo , in a newly created reserve following translocation , 1995 .

[28]  A. Lehmann,et al.  Habitat Matrix Effects on Pond Occupancy in Newts , 2001 .

[29]  P. J. Boer,et al.  Spreading of risk and stabilization of animal numbers , 1968 .

[30]  C. Johnston.  Geographic Information Systems in Ecology , 1998 .

[31]  M. Gilpin,et al.  Metapopulation Biology: Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution , 1997 .

[32]  M. Soulé,et al.  Viable Populations for Conservation , 1987 .

[33]  Walter Collischonn,et al.  A direction dependent least-cost-path algorithm for roads and canals , 2000, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[34]  M. Shaffer.  Viable Populations for Conservation: Minimum viable populations: coping with uncertainty , 1987 .

[35]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Generalized Additive Models , 1991 .

[36]  Jana Verboom,et al.  Dispersal and habitat connectivity in complex heterogeneous landscapes: an analysis with a GIS based random walk model , 1996 .

[37]  I. Schlupp,et al.  Changes in breeding site fidelity: A combined study of conservation and behaviour in the common toad Bufo bufo , 1994 .

[38]  Ulrich Sinsch,et al.  Seasonal changes in the migratory behaviour of the toad Bufo bufo: direction and magnitude of movements , 1988, Oecologia.

[39]  David K. Skelly,et al.  LONG-TERM DISTRIBUTIONAL DYNAMICS OF A MICHIGAN AMPHIBIAN ASSEMBLAGE , 1999 .

[40]  D. Wake,et al.  Amphibian Declines: Judging Stability, Persistence, and Susceptibility of Populations to Local and Global Extinctions , 1994 .

[41]  H. G. Andrewartha,et al.  The distribution and abundance of animals. , 1954 .

[42]  R. Ostfeld,et al.  The Ecological Basis of Conservation: Heterogeneity, Ecosystems, and Biodiversity , 1999 .

[43]  T. Beebee,et al.  Genetic substructuring as a result of barriers to gene flow in urban Rana temporaria (common frog) populations: implications for biodiversity conservation , 1997, Heredity.

[44]  C. Vos,et al.  Effects of habitat fragmentation and road density on the distribution pattern of the moor frog Rana arvalis , 1998 .