A kernel entropy manifold learning approach for financial data analysis

Identification of intrinsic characteristics and structure of high-dimensional data is an important task for financial analysis. This paper presents a kernel entropy manifold learning algorithm, which employs the information metric to measure the relationships between two financial data points and yields a reasonable low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional financial data. The proposed algorithm can also be used to describe the characteristics of a financial system by deriving the dynamical properties of the original data space. The experiment shows that the proposed algorithm cannot only improve the accuracy of financial early warning, but also provide objective criteria for explaining and predicting the stock market volatility. A kernel entropy manifold learning algorithm for financial data (MLFD)MLFD employs the information metric to measure the relationships between two financial data points.MLFD yields reasonable and accurate low-dimensional embedding of the original financial data set.The accuracy of the financial early warning is improved by MLFD.

[1]  Alejandro F. Frangi,et al.  Two-dimensional PCA: a new approach to appearance-based face representation and recognition , 2004 .

[2]  Thomas Bury,et al.  Market structure explained by pairwise interactions , 2012, 1210.8380.

[3]  Sang Joon Kim,et al.  A Mathematical Theory of Communication , 2006 .

[4]  Eric Séverin,et al.  Predicting corporate bankruptcy using a self-organizing map: An empirical study to improve the forecasting horizon of a financial failure model , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[5]  Rui Li,et al.  Divide, Conquer and Coordinate: Globally Coordinated Switching Linear Dynamical System , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[6]  Chih-Chou Chiu,et al.  A hybrid approach by integrating wavelet-based feature extraction with MARS and SVR for stock index forecasting , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[7]  Amir F. Atiya,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: A survey and new results , 2001, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[8]  Carlos Serrano-Cinca,et al.  Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis for bankruptcy prediction , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[9]  David L. Olson,et al.  Comparative analysis of data mining methods for bankruptcy prediction , 2012, Decis. Support Syst..

[10]  Li Yang,et al.  Alignment of Overlapping Locally Scaled Patches for Multidimensional Scaling and Dimensionality Reduction , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[11]  Çagdas Hakan Aladag,et al.  A new linear & nonlinear artificial neural network model for time series forecasting , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[12]  Soushan Wu,et al.  Credit rating analysis with support vector machines and neural networks: a market comparative study , 2004, Decis. Support Syst..

[13]  Alexander J. Smola,et al.  Learning with kernels , 1998 .

[14]  Hongyuan Zha,et al.  Principal Manifolds and Nonlinear Dimension Reduction via Local Tangent Space Alignment , 2002, ArXiv.

[15]  Hong Qiao,et al.  An Explicit Nonlinear Mapping for Manifold Learning , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics.

[16]  Kin Keung Lai,et al.  A new fuzzy support vector machine to evaluate credit risk , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[17]  S T Roweis,et al.  Nonlinear dimensionality reduction by locally linear embedding. , 2000, Science.

[18]  Alfred O. Hero,et al.  FINE: Fisher Information Nonparametric Embedding , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[19]  Chris Stewart,et al.  A note comparing support vector machines and ordered choice models' predictions of international banks' ratings , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[20]  Bart Baesens,et al.  Comprehensible Credit Scoring Models Using Rule Extraction from Support Vector Machines , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[21]  J. Tenenbaum,et al.  A global geometric framework for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. , 2000, Science.

[22]  Petr Hájek,et al.  Municipal credit rating modelling by neural networks , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[23]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Failure prediction of dotcom companies using neural network-genetic programming hybrids , 2010, Inf. Sci..

[24]  A. Kolmogorov Three approaches to the quantitative definition of information , 1968 .

[25]  Feiping Nie,et al.  Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction with Local Spline Embedding , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering.

[26]  Péter Gács,et al.  Information Distance , 1998, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory.

[27]  Alfred O. Hero,et al.  Information-Geometric Dimensionality Reduction , 2011, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine.

[28]  A. Rényi On the dimension and entropy of probability distributions , 1959 .

[29]  Alfred O. Hero,et al.  Geodesic entropic graphs for dimension and entropy estimation in manifold learning , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing.

[30]  H. Frydman,et al.  Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress , 1985 .

[31]  G. Seber Multivariate observations / G.A.F. Seber , 1983 .

[32]  Hongbin Zha,et al.  Riemannian Manifold Learning , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[33]  H. Zha,et al.  Principal manifolds and nonlinear dimensionality reduction via tangent space alignment , 2004, SIAM J. Sci. Comput..

[34]  Shiming Xiang,et al.  Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction , 2021, Computer Vision.

[35]  Anil K. Jain,et al.  Incremental nonlinear dimensionality reduction by manifold learning , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[36]  Yaacov Ritov,et al.  Local procrustes for manifold embedding: a measure of embedding quality and embedding algorithms , 2009, Machine Learning.

[37]  Deng Cai,et al.  Manifold Adaptive Experimental Design for Text Categorization , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering.

[38]  Frank R Burden,et al.  Quantitative structure-property relationship modeling of diverse materials properties. , 2012, Chemical reviews.

[39]  Jan Muntermann,et al.  An intraday market risk management approach based on textual analysis , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[40]  David S. Broomhead,et al.  Geometric Manifold Learning , 2011, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine.

[41]  Chih-Chou Chiu,et al.  Financial time series forecasting using independent component analysis and support vector regression , 2009, Decis. Support Syst..

[42]  Kevin C. Moffitt,et al.  Identification of fraudulent financial statements using linguistic credibility analysis , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[43]  Edward I. Altman,et al.  Commercial Bank Lending: Process, Credit Scoring, and Costs of Errors in Lending , 1980, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[44]  R. Charles Moyer,et al.  Contemporary Financial Management , 1981 .

[45]  A. Shiryayev New Metric Invariant of Transitive Dynamical Systems and Automorphisms of Lebesgue Spaces , 1993 .

[46]  Andrew Trotman,et al.  Sound and complete relevance assessment for XML retrieval , 2008, TOIS.

[47]  Young U. Ryu,et al.  Firm bankruptcy prediction: experimental comparison of isotonic separation and other classification approaches , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.

[48]  Samuel Kaski,et al.  Bankruptcy analysis with self-organizing maps in learning metrics , 2001, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[49]  Hsinchun Chen,et al.  Textual analysis of stock market prediction using breaking financial news: The AZFin text system , 2009, TOIS.

[50]  A. Chigogidze,et al.  SECTIONS OF SERRE FIBRATIONS WITH 2-MANIFOLD FIBERS , 2008 .

[51]  Chih-Fong Tsai,et al.  Combining multiple feature selection methods for stock prediction: Union, intersection, and multi-intersection approaches , 2010, Decis. Support Syst..

[52]  Peter Sarlin,et al.  Decomposing the global financial crisis: A Self-Organizing Time Map , 2013, Pattern Recognit. Lett..

[53]  Samuel W. K. Chan,et al.  A text-based decision support system for financial sequence prediction , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[54]  Ming Zhang,et al.  Neuron-adaptive higher order neural-network models for automated financial data modeling , 2002, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[55]  E. Parzen On Estimation of a Probability Density Function and Mode , 1962 .

[56]  Robert Jenssen,et al.  Kernel Entropy Component Analysis , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[57]  H. Sebastian Seung,et al.  The Manifold Ways of Perception , 2000, Science.