Forecast of Automobile Population in China

To some extent,there are some uncertainties in forecasting automobile inventory.The scientific forecast of China's(automobile) in the years of 2010,2020,and 2030 is a key to make long-term development plans of the nation's highway transportation,and the relevant policies of environmental protection and energy-saving.Based on the scenario analysis of each development stage of (China's) economy,considering the factors of the growth speed of economy,population,and automobile inventory and the distribution of per(capita) GDP in different regions,using the methods of trends extrapolation,elasticity coefficient,and international scenario(comparison) and the calculation of transportation workload,the paper does a comprehensive forecast of China's development in the future.The result is that in 2030,the automobile population will amount to 230～250 million, which is 1.7～1.9 times that of 2020,and 4.6 times that of 2010.The significant increase of automobile will inevitably bring great pressure to the land,resources of energy and(environmental)(protection,)so the implementation of scientific development concept,saving resources and protecting the environment and adopting(sustainable) development policy will be the objective requirements of highway transportation development of China in the future.