Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Abstract Cucinotta, F. A., Schimmerling, W., Wilson, J. W., Peterson, L. E., Badhwar, G. D., Saganti, P. B. and Dicello, J. F. Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions. Radiat. Res. 156, 682–688 (2001). Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400–600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or δ-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

[1]  S J Garte,et al.  Estimation of risk based on multiple events in radiation carcinogenesis of rat skin. , 1994, Advances in space research : the official journal of the Committee on Space Research.

[2]  E. J. Ainsworth,et al.  High-LET radiation carcinogenesis. , 1985, Radiation research. Supplement.

[3]  J. Wilson,et al.  RADIATION PROTECTION : GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS , 2022 .

[4]  M. Sasaki,et al.  The F value cannot be ruled out as a chromosomal fingerprint of radiation quality. , 1998, Radiation research.

[5]  D A Pierce,et al.  Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 12, Part I. Cancer: 1950-1990. , 1996, Radiation research.

[6]  A. Edwards.  RBE of radiations in space and the implications for space travel. , 2001, Physica medica : PM : an international journal devoted to the applications of physics to medicine and biology : official journal of the Italian Association of Biomedical Physics.

[7]  E. Hall,et al.  Malignant transformation in cultured hamster embryo cells produced by X-rays, 460-keV monoenergetic neutrons, and heavy ions. , 1978, Cancer research.

[8]  R. Ullrich.  Tumor induction in BALB/c female mice after fission neutron or gamma irradiation. , 1983, Radiation research.

[9]  C A Tobias,et al.  Neoplastic cell transformation by heavy charged particles. , 1985, Radiation research. Supplement.

[10]  J. Wilson,et al.  Assessment and requirements of nuclear reaction databases for GCR transport in the atmosphere and structures. , 1998, Advances in space research : the official journal of the Committee on Space Research.

[11]  E. J. Ainsworth,et al.  High-LET radiation carcinogenesis. , 1985 .

[12]  A. Kellerer,et al.  Neutron RBE for Induction of Tumors with High Lethality in Sprague-Dawley Rats , 2000, Radiation research.

[13]  J. Wilson,et al.  Biological effectiveness of high-energy protons: target fragmentation. , 1991, Radiation research.

[14]  D T Goodhead,et al.  Initial events in the cellular effects of ionizing radiations: clustered damage in DNA. , 1994, International journal of radiation biology.

[15]  Icrp.  1990 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection , 1991 .

[16]  E. J. Ainsworth.  Early and late mammalian responses to heavy charged particles. , 1986, Advances in space research : the official journal of the Committee on Space Research.

[17]  F Ianzini,et al.  Inactivation and mutation induction in V79 cells by low energy protons: re-evaluation of the results at the LNL facility. , 1993, International journal of radiation biology.

[18]  E Cardis,et al.  Effects of low doses and low dose rates of external ionizing radiation: cancer mortality among nuclear industry workers in three countries. , 1995, Radiation research.

[19]  J. Kiefer,et al.  Mutation induction by heavy ions. , 1994, Advances in space research : the official journal of the Committee on Space Research.

[20]  M. Durante,et al.  Induction of chromosome aberrations in human cells by charged particles. , 1997, Radiation research.

[21]  Richard Wakeford,et al.  Uncertainties in Fatal Cancer Risk Estimates Used in Radiation Protection , 1998 .

[22]  E. Hall,et al.  The biological effectiveness of radon-progeny alpha particles. IV. Morphological transformation of Syrian hamster embryo cells at low doses. , 1995, Radiation research.

[23]  R. Sievert,et al.  Book Reviews : Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (as amended 1959 and revised 1962). I.C.R.P. Publication 6. 70 pp. PERGAMON PRESS. Oxford, London and New York, 1964. £1 5s. 0d. [TB/54] , 1964 .

[24]  J. Little,et al.  Induction of sister chromatid exchanges by extremely low doses of alpha-particles. , 1992, Cancer research.

[25]  R. Thomas.  The quality factor in radiation protection , 1987 .

[26]  K. Kinzler,et al.  The Genetic Basis of Human Cancer , 1997 .

[27]  D. Goodhead,et al.  Chromosomal instability in the descendants of unirradiated surviving cells after alpha-particle irradiation. , 1998, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[28]  J. Thacker,et al.  Mutation and inactivation of cultured mammalian cells exposed to beams of accelerated heavy ions. II. Chinese hamster V79 cells. , 1979, International journal of radiation biology and related studies in physics, chemistry, and medicine.

[29]  F A Cucinotta,et al.  Model for Radial Dependence of Frequency Distributions for Energy Imparted in Nanometer Volumes from HZE Particles , 2000, Radiation research.

[30]  F. Cucinotta,et al.  Chromosome aberrations in human lymphocytes induced by 250 MeV protons: effects of dose, dose rate and shielding. , 2002, Advances in space research : the official journal of the Committee on Space Research.

[31]  L W Townsend,et al.  Radiation protection guidance for activities in low-Earth orbit. , 2002, Advances in space research : the official journal of the Committee on Space Research.

[32]  F. Cucinotta,et al.  A Comparison of Depth Dependence of Dose and Linear Energy Transfer Spectra in Aluminum and Polyethylene , 2000, Radiation research.

[33]  M. Durante,et al.  Dose–response of initial G2-chromatid breaks induced in normal human fibroblasts by heavy ions , 2001, International journal of radiation biology.

[34]  J. Storer,et al.  Limiting values for the RBE of fission neutrons at low doses for life shortening in mice. , 1984, Radiation research.

[35]  Leif E. Peterson,et al.  Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station. , 1999, Mutation research.

[36]  P. Powers-Risius,et al.  Tumorigenic potential of high-Z, high-LET charged-particle radiations. , 1993, Radiation research.

[37]  G. Badhwar,et al.  An analysis of interplanetary space radiation exposure for various solar cycles. , 1994, Radiation research.