Prediction of the Coal Generation for the Day After Tomorrow Using Derivative Market Information

The Day Ahead Congestion Forecast is a procedure in operation among all European Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to ensure the security of the European grid. It is performed daily, with the information being provided to the ENTSO-E by all the TSOs. In this procedure the Portuguese System Operator generates 24 savecases, based on the generation profile provided by the Iberian Electricity Market. Anticipating this procedure with a Day 2 Ahead Congestion Forecast (D2ACF) enhances the security of the electrical grid. However, there is a lack of information regarding the generation profile for this period of time. A better assessment of the generation profile for the D2ACF results in a better assessment of the interchange capacity between TSOs for the day ahead. The developed method uses the Rough Sets Theory to search databases for meaningful decision rules, acquiring knowledge to classify the coal generation with the prediction of the coal generation for the day after tomorrow.