Validation of a social vulnerability index in context to river-floods in Germany.

Abstract. Social vulnerability indices are a means for generating information about people potentially affected by disasters that are e.g. triggered by river-floods. The purpose behind such an index is in this study the development and the validation of a social vulnerability map of population characteristics towards river-floods covering all counties in Germany. This map is based on a composite index of three main indicators for social vulnerability in Germany – fragility, socio-economic conditions and region. These indicators have been identified by a factor analysis of selected demographic variables obtained from federal statistical offices. Therefore, these indicators can be updated annually based on a reliable data source. The vulnerability patterns detected by the factor analysis are verified by using an independent second data set. The interpretation of the second data set shows that vulnerability is revealed by a real extreme flood event and demonstrates that the patterns of the presumed vulnerability match the observations of a real event. It comprises a survey of flood-affected households in three federal states. By using logistic regression, it is demonstrated that the theoretically presumed indications of vulnerability are correct and that the indicators are valid. It is shown that indeed certain social groups like the elderly, the financially weak or the urban residents are higher risk groups.

[1]  Barrie Hopson,et al.  INTRODUCTION TO PRACTICE , 1968 .

[2]  H. Bernard.  Research Methods in Anthropology: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches , 1988 .

[3]  H. J. Arnold.  Introduction to the Practice of Statistics , 1990 .

[4]  W. Neuman,et al.  Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches , 2002 .

[5]  Samuel J. Ratick,et al.  Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Extreme Storms: The Case of Revere, MA., USA , 1998 .

[6]  B H Morrow,et al.  Identifying and mapping community vulnerability. , 1999, Disasters.

[7]  Jerry T. Mitchell,et al.  Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina , 2000 .

[8]  David King.  Uses and Limitations of Socioeconomic Indicators of Community Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Data and Disasters in Northern Australia , 2001 .

[9]  Brent Yarnal,et al.  Vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise: a case study of Cape May County, New Jersey, USA , 2002 .

[10]  T. L. Wilson,et al.  Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions , 2002, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[11]  Christian Kuhlicke,et al.  Social vulnerability and the 2002 flood , 2002 .

[12]  Juergen Weichselgartner.  About the capacity to be wounded: The need to link disaster mitigation and sustainable development , 2002 .

[13]  Lynn P. Nygaard,et al.  Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India , 2004 .

[14]  Stefano Tarantola,et al.  Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide , 2005 .

[15]  Jayajit Chakraborty,et al.  Population Evacuation: Assessing Spatial Variability in Geophysical Risk and Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards , 2005 .

[16]  B. Merz,et al.  Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002 , 2005 .

[17]  Stefan Greiving,et al.  REGIONAL MULTI-RISK REVIEW, HAZARD WEIGHTING AND SPATIAL PLANNING RESPONSE TO RISK - RESULTS FROM EUROPEAN CASE STUDIES , 2006 .

[18]  Brent Yarnal,et al.  A Method for Constructing a Social Vulnerability Index: An Application to Hurricane Storm Surges in a Developed Country , 2006 .

[19]  K. Zickfeld,et al.  Semiquantitative Assessment of Regional Climate Vulnerability: The North-Rhine Westphalia Study , 2006 .

[20]  K. Nagel,et al.  Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: Conceptual frameworks and definitions , 2006 .

[21]  Stefan Schneiderbauer,et al.  Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Disasters from Broad View to Focused Perspective , 2007 .

[22]  C. Kerchner,et al.  Distribution of impacts of natural disasters across income groups: A case study of New Orleans , 2007 .

[23]  B. Yarnal.  Vulnerability and all that jazz: Addressing vulnerability in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina , 2007 .

[24]  Brent Yarnal,et al.  Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to Storm-Surge Flooding and Sea-Level Rise , 2007 .

[25]  B. Merz,et al.  Coping with floods: preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany in 2002 , 2007 .

[26]  A. Steinführer,et al.  Social vulnerability and the 2002 flood. Country report Germany (Mulde river) , 2007 .

[27]  Markus Bühner.  Einführung in die Test- und Fragebogenkonstruktion , 2008 .

[28]  Volker Meyer,et al.  GIS-based Multicriteria Analysis as Decision Support in Flood Risk Management , 2009 .

[29]  D. Sheridan,et al.  Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards , 2010 .

[30]  Alexander Fekete,et al.  Scales as a challenge for vulnerability assessment , 2010 .

[31]  M. David,et al.  DRAFT Indicator Issues and Proposed Framework for a Disaster Preparedness Index ( DPi ) , 2022 .