Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that if the United States is to generate 20% of its electricity from wind, over 50 GW will be required from shallow offshore turbines. Hurricanes are a potential risk to these turbines. Turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons, but no offshore wind turbines have yet been built in the United States. We present a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed by hurricanes in an offshore wind farm. We apply this model to estimate the risk to offshore wind farms in four representative locations in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters of the United States. In the most vulnerable areas now being actively considered by developers, nearly half the turbines in a farm are likely to be destroyed in a 20-y period. Reasonable mitigation measures—increasing the design reference wind load, ensuring that the nacelle can be turned into rapidly changing winds, and building most wind plants in the areas with lower risk—can greatly enhance the probability that offshore wind can help to meet the United States’ electricity needs.

[1]  J. Schroeder,et al.  An Examination of Tropical and Extratropical Gust Factors and the Associated Wind Speed Histograms , 2005 .

[2]  G. Holland,et al.  Tropical cyclones and climate change , 2010, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.

[3]  Lance Manuel,et al.  Foundation models for offshore wind turbines , 2009 .

[4]  W. M. Gray,et al.  The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications , 2001, Science.

[5]  Atsushi Yamaguchi,et al.  Damages of wind turbine on Miyakojima Island by Typhoon Maemi in 2003 , 2003 .

[6]  N. J. Tarp-Johansen,et al.  Wind farms in regions exposed to tropical cyclones , 2007 .

[7]  Mark A. Saunders,et al.  Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005 , 2008 .

[8]  Marcel F. Neuts,et al.  Matrix-geometric solutions in stochastic models - an algorithmic approach , 1982 .

[9]  John Dalsgaard Sørensen,et al.  Reliability-based optimization and optimal reliability level of offshore wind turbines , 2005 .

[10]  Takeshi Koike,et al.  New Reference Wind Speed for Wind Turbines in Typhoon-Prone Areas in the Philippines , 2010 .

[11]  N. J. Tarp-Johansen,et al.  Design of wind turbines in an area with tropical cyclones (poster) , 2006 .

[12]  Lennart Bengtsson,et al.  How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? , 2007 .

[13]  Mogens Bladt,et al.  A Review on Phase-type Distributions and their Use in Risk Theory , 2005, ASTIN Bulletin.

[14]  Walter Musial,et al.  On Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines in US Waters , 2010 .

[15]  Paul J. Hebert,et al.  Hurricane experience levels of coastal county populations, Texas to Maine , 1975 .

[16]  Richard E. Peterson,et al.  Variation of turbulence intensities and integral scales during the passage of a hurricane , 1998 .

[17]  D. Dickson,et al.  A Review of Panjer's Recursion Formula and its Applications , 1995, British Actuarial Journal.

[18]  Brian H. Bossak.  Early 19th Century U.S. Hurricanes , 2003 .

[19]  Charles,et al.  A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886-1977 : contents, limitations, and uses , 1978 .

[20]  J. Franklin,et al.  GPS Dropwindsonde Wind Profiles in Hurricanes and Their Operational Implications , 2003 .

[21]  Edward N. Rappaport,et al.  THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 1851 TO 2004 (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS) , 2005 .

[22]  Farrel Zwerneman,et al.  22nd Edition of API RP 2A Recommended Practice for Planning, Designing and Constructing Fixed Offshore Platforms – Working Stress Design , 2010 .

[23]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes , 2010, Science.

[24]  Donna Heimiller,et al.  Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States , 2010 .

[25]  Stanley A. Changnon,et al.  Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949–2006 , 2009 .

[26]  William S. Jewell,et al.  Further Results on Recursive Evaluation of Compound Distributions , 1981, ASTIN Bulletin.

[27]  Haibin Liu,et al.  Statistical Forecasting of Electric Power Restoration Times in Hurricanes and Ice Storms , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[28]  J. Jonkman,et al.  Definition of a 5-MW Reference Wind Turbine for Offshore System Development , 2009 .

[29]  Ana Maria Cruz,et al.  Damage to Offshore Oil and Gas Facilities Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: An Overview , 2008 .

[30]  J. Elsner,et al.  The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones , 2008, Nature.

[31]  J. Schroeder,et al.  Hurricane Bonnie wind flow characteristics as determined from WEMITE , 2003 .

[32]  Søren Ott.  Extreme winds in the Western North Pacific , 2006 .

[33]  Bruce A. McCarl,et al.  Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications , 2012, Climatic Change.

[34]  John A. Knaff,et al.  Atlantic Basin Hurricanes: Indices of Climatic Changes , 1999 .

[35]  Harry H. Panjer,et al.  Recursive Evaluation of a Family of Compound Distributions , 1981, ASTIN Bulletin.

[36]  J. Knaff,et al.  Can We Detect Trends in Extreme Tropical Cyclones? , 2006, Science.

[37]  Peter J. Vickery,et al.  Hurricane Gust Factors Revisited , 2005 .

[38]  Iris Grossmann,et al.  Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done? , 2011 .