Distributionally robust optimization with polynomial densities: theory, models and algorithms

In distributionally robust optimization the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters is itself uncertain, and a fictitious adversary, e.g., nature, chooses the worst distribution from within a known ambiguity set . A common shortcoming of most existing distributionally robust optimization models is that their ambiguity sets contain pathological discrete distributions that give nature too much freedom to inflict damage. We thus introduce a new class of ambiguity sets that contain only distributions with sum-of-squares (SOS) polynomial density functions of known degrees. We show that these ambiguity sets are highly expressive as they conveniently accommodate distributional information about higher-order moments, conditional probabilities, conditional moments or marginal distributions. Exploiting the theoretical properties of a measure-based hierarchy for polynomial optimization due to Lasserre (SIAM J Optim 21(3):864–885, 2011 ), we prove that certain worst-case expectation constraints are polynomial-time solvable under these new ambiguity sets. We also show how SOS densities can be used to approximately solve the general problem of moments . We showcase the applicability of the proposed approach in the context of a stylized portfolio optimization problem and a risk aggregation problem of an insurance company.