Maize production, drought and AIDS in Monze District Zambia

In 1991-92 Monze district in southern Zambia received about 18 inches of precipitation making it the lowest annual rainfall since 1923-24. By February 1992 drought relief began. At the same time most of the cattle died of a tick-borne disease called East Coast fever ("Corridor disease") resulting in impoverishment among the poorest families. If the rains would return to normal levels within 2-3 years normal agriculture would be restored and within 5 years farmers could reconstitute their herds. Yet the AIDS epidemic will probably prevent such a return to normalcy. 18-20% of blood donors at the hospital were HIV seropositive in 1991. Using these data a health policy analyst estimated that 1 in 6.5 households in Monze district already have HIV-related illness or have experienced a death from AIDS. There was a tendency for AIDS cases to cluster in a few households causing a fewer number of households affected but those that were affected were generally heavily affected. For example the husband the wife and a child would have had AIDS and more than 1 person would die usually leaving many orphans. The health policy analyst made projections for the next 5 years based on an assumption of no new HIV infections and found 4000 more deaths from AIDS will occur and the 4000 more subsequent upheavals in families caused by these deaths. Crop yields depend heavily on female labor because women do the planting weeding and fertilizing so the loss of women to AIDS either through their own death of through having to care for a family member with AIDS reduces crop yields. Further women were more likely to assume mens roles than were men assuming womens roles. If men do not assume womens role food production will be affected. Interventions should target families weakened by AIDS or will soon be affected by AIDS to help them to avert economic ruin and to preserve the remaining members of the household.