Forecast value considering energy pricing in California

In this study, production forecast value is investigated using day-ahead market (DAM) and real-time market (RTM) locational marginal prices (LMP) at 63 sites in California. Using the North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model, day-ahead global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts are established and converted to power assuming that a 1MW solar photovoltaic plant is co-located at each observation site. Using this forecast, energy is hypothetically sold in the DAM. As the RTM occurs, deviations between forecast and observation are settled by hypothetically purchasing or selling energy at the RTM price. Total revenue is calculated by the sum of these two transactions.

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