The role of mathematics and physics in migration predictions

Whilst one or two mathematical formulae have appeared frequently in papers on migration, little use has yet been made of them in analysing data, or in writing legislation on food contact materials and articles. In this short review, it is argued that mathematics and physics have far greater potential than has so far been realized in such roles, and certain basic principles that are crucial for effective use of these disciplines in migration research are discussed. The first of these is the great importance of the geometry, i.e. shape and size, of the food-container system; most (if not all) commonly used formulae have serious shortcomings because they apply only to one-dimensional geometries, which are not met in practice. The second is that results must be plotted in non-dimensional form if underlying unity of behaviour is to be detected — and the search for such unity is one of the main aims of mathematics. Finally, the paper discusses some causes of the large variability that is observed in practice between the results of nominally identical tests, and concludes that statistical methods should have far greater prominence than hitherto in all stages of migration research, and the drafting of legislation.