Assimilation of MODIS-LAI into the WOFOST model for forecasting regional winter wheat yield

Abstract Crop growth models have been applied successfully in forecasting crop yield at a local scale, while satellite remote sensing has the advantage of retrieving regional crop parameters. The new assimilation method of integrating the crop growth model with remote sensing has presented great potential in regional crop yield assessment. In this study, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) data product was assimilated into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) crop growth model. Using the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) global sensitivity analysis approach, several local and regional crop parameters were identified to be recalibrated. The Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) optimization algorithm was used to estimate the emergence date, initial biomass and initial available soil water by minimizing the differences between the corrected MODIS-LAI and simulated LAI. Results indicated that the accuracy of water-limited crop yield was improved significantly after the assimilation. The root mean square error (RMSE) reduced from 983 kg/ha to 474 kg/ha and 667 kg/ha respectively in two different optimization schemes.

[1]  Wolfram Mauser,et al.  Methods and examples for remote sensing data assimilation in land surface process modeling , 2003, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote. Sens..

[2]  Jianxi Huang,et al.  Regional Crop Yield Assessment by Combination of a Crop Growth Model and Phenology Information Derived from MODIS , 2011 .

[3]  Hongliang Fang,et al.  Corn‐yield estimation through assimilation of remotely sensed data into the CSM‐CERES‐Maize model , 2008 .

[4]  Liu Qinhuo,et al.  Methodolagy of Winter Wheat Yield Prediction based on Assimilation of Remote Sensing Data with Crop Growth Model , 2006 .

[5]  J. Clevers,et al.  Combined use of optical and microwave remote sensing data for crop growth monitoring , 1996 .

[6]  F. Hall,et al.  Global Crop Forecasting , 1980, Science.

[7]  C. A. van Diepen,et al.  User's guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model and WOFOST Control Center 1.5. , 1998 .

[8]  Jin Chen,et al.  A simple method for reconstructing a high-quality NDVI time-series data set based on the Savitzky-Golay filter , 2004 .

[9]  M. Guérif,et al.  Assimilating remote sensing data into a crop model to improve predictive performance for spatial applications , 2005 .

[10]  F. Baret,et al.  Coupling canopy functioning and radiative transfer models for remote sensing data assimilation , 2001 .

[11]  Bunkei Matsushita,et al.  Estimation of regional net primary productivity (NPP) using a process-based ecosystem model: How important is the accuracy of climate data? , 2004 .

[12]  M. Guérif,et al.  Calibration of the SUCROS emergence and early growth module for sugar beet using optical remote sensing data assimilation , 1998 .

[13]  G. Hoogenboom.  Contribution of agrometeorology to the simulation of crop production and its applications , 2000 .

[14]  S. Sorooshian,et al.  Shuffled complex evolution approach for effective and efficient global minimization , 1993 .

[15]  Chen Jin,et al.  Rice yield estimation by assimilation remote sensing into crop growth model , 2010 .

[16]  Li Zhang,et al.  Monitoring winter wheat growth in North China by combining a crop model and remote sensing data , 2008, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinformation.

[17]  L. Dente,et al.  Assimilation of leaf area index derived from ASAR and MERIS data into CERES - wheat model to map wheat yield , 2008 .

[18]  Jiang Zhiwei,et al.  Global sensitivity analysis of CERES-Wheat model parameters , 2011 .

[19]  Chen Zhongxin,et al.  Global sensitivity analysis of growth simulation parameters of winter wheat based on EPIC model. , 2009 .

[20]  A. Saltelli,et al.  A quantitative model-independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output , 1999 .

[21]  Wang Shi.  Winter Wheat Growth Simulation under Water Stress by Remote Sensing in North China , 2007 .

[22]  Wu Ding.  THE APPLICABILITY RESEARCH OF WOFOST MODEL IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN , 2003 .

[23]  A. J. Stern,et al.  Application of MODIS derived parameters for regional crop yield assessment , 2005 .