A computerised system for matching climates in ecology

A computer-based system (CLIMEX) is described which enables the prediction of an animal's potential relative abundance and distribution around the world, using biological data and observations on geographical distribution. Separate indices describe the potential of a population firstly to grow, and secondly to persist through climatically unfavourable periods. The indices are then combined to give an “Ecoclimatic Index”, which describes the overall climatic favourability of any location for that animal. The system is applicable in such areas as quarantine, biological control, pest management and epidemiology. Examples from veterinary entomology, using the ticks Boophilus microplus, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus and Amblyomma variegatum, and the flies Haematobia spp., are used to illustrate how CLIMEX can provide insight into likely changes in population size within years, between years and between places. The caveats usually associated with climatic matching are reiterated.

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