Hybrid Fuzzy-Bayesian Dynamic Decision Support Tool for Resource-Based Scheduling of Construction Projects

This dissertation proposes a flexible and intelligent decision support tool for scheduling and resource allocation of construction projects. A hybrid Fuzzy-Bayesian scheduling network and a new optimization model and solution approach have been developed to assess the combinatory effect of different risk factors on scheduling and optimize the time-cost tradeoff. Developed decision support tool employs interval-valued fuzzy numbers and Bayesian networks to dynamically quantify uncertainty and predict project performance during its makespan. Using interval-valued fuzzy numbers makes the model more flexible and intelligent comparing to conventional fuzzy risk assessment models through incorporating the decision makers` confidence degree. The linguistic assessments of experts regarding the likelihood and severity of increase or decrease in task duration and cost when influenced by different risk factors are used to generate a set of duration and cost prior-probability distributions.

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