THE IMPACT OF SEPTEMBER 11

Many people are worried that the impact of September 11th will change the tri-state region's (New York, New Jersey and Connecticut) outlook for the worse, but the historical pattern shows that major urban disasters don't materially alter long-term trends. As evidence, we review in some detail San Francisco's 1906 earthquake and fire, the Los Angeles 1994 Northridge earthquake, Miami's 1992 Hurricane Andrew, and Tokyo's two wipe-out disasters (the 1923 earthquake and the 1945 air raids). Even so, some people are going to think that September 11th was worse because it involved terrorist attacks. And how can we protect ourselves against more such attacks? Certainly there is a need for better security measures and intelligence, but there's no protection from Mother Nature's terrorist gangs, waiting to loose new earthquakes and hurricanes and devastate helpless metropolitan regions. Compared to the natural disasters that are inevitable in the Los Angeles and Seattle regions, it turns out that the tri-state region is one of the safest places to live and do business.