Spatially Distributed Modeling: Conceptual Approach to Runoff Prediction

The relationship between perceptual models, conceptual models and physically based distributed models of hydrological processes is analyzed. It is shown that physically-based models must be considered as conceptual models at the scale at which they are used. A simplified distributed model (TOP MODEL) that can take account of heterogeneity in catchment topography and soils is introduced. A likelihood based procedure for estimating the uncertainties associated with the predictions of complex distributed models is described.

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