Roadmapping for Dynamic and Uncertain Environments

A carefully designed and implemented blend of scenario planning and roadmapping can offer "the best of both worlds." Top-performing companies recognize that success will depend on their ability to create and apply knowledge in ways that fit their increasingly complex and dynamic market and corporate environments. Two valuable but still relatively independent management tools have evolved: scenario planning and roadmapping. The enhanced vision, flexibility and environmental monitoring strengths of scenario planning when married to the clarity, integration and attention to detail inherent in roadmapping can help overcome current limitations in each. Indeed, when "properly" implemented, either tool can claim to merge into the other. Rarely is this the case, however, and particularly in dynamic and volatile environments, neither approach achieves its potential independently. The challenge of marrying the generally high level and macro thinking of scenario planning with the micro planning of roadmapping, though daunting in practice, is possible and appears worth the effort. This paper highlights the limitations commonly experienced in applying roadmapping and scenario planning independently and then introduces a new approach that integrates the two tools. Our empirical-based observations derive from a large-scale, on-going study being carried out in a collaboration that links the MATI consortium with the Kellogg School and Northwestern University Center for Technology and Innovation Management (CTIM). Although approached from a somewhat different perspective, the presentation relates to and complements several core concepts in knowledge management. Included here is Nonaka's view of the challenge in knowledge creation within corporations to maintain a holistic perspective while converting tacit to explicit knowledge and creatively recombining these to make a more desirable and usable whole (1). Our focus here, however, is on how such concepts and others can be applied through practical administrative and operational toolsets, with consideration of underlying functions, management processes and their interrelationships. Technology and Product Roadmapping Typically based on strategic plan requirements, roadmaps incorporate product attributes and lay out steps over time to achieve defined goals, related development requirements, allocation priorities, and defined evolution plans for flagship or core products and platforms. The roadmap is a visual tool that identifies and describes specific customer requirement-driven technology clusters and specifies potential discontinuities and critical requirements related to technology decisions. The process of developing the roadmaps itself encourages thinking and cross-organizational communication. As well described by Albright and Kappel in Part 1 of this roadmapping special report, roadmaps are "the base for corporate technology planning, identifying needs, gaps, strengths and weaknesses in a common language across the corporation" (2). McMillan in this same collection similarly discusses how in Rockwell Automation, roadmaps became "knowledge-capture and communication tools" (3). Ideally, this creates a "dialogue of alignment," as noted by Albright and Kappel, with customers and suppliers as well. Roadmapping Limitations In-depth consideration of the above cited experience and our research point to a number of common constraining issues: * Roadmapping may be viewed as a stand-alone deliverable that is often initiated in response to a specific perceived crisis or need and may not become inculcated into on-going management. Even when the desired shared understanding is achieved in the process of developing the roadmaps, such understanding must be continually renewed to maintain the proper foundation for decisions. This is particularly so under dynamic and volatile conditions. * When the perception is that policy or assignments change suddenly and arbitrarily, there may be little incentive to design or implement roadmaps. …