Interval Estimation for a Binomial Proportion

We revisit the problem of interval estimation of a binomial proportion. The erratic behavior of the coverage probability of the stan- d ardWaldconfid ence interval has previously been remarkedon in the literature (Blyth andStill, Agresti andCoull, Santner andothers). We begin by showing that the chaotic coverage properties of the Waldinter- val are far more persistent than is appreciated. Furthermore, common textbook prescriptions regarding its safety are misleading and defective in several respects andcannot be trusted . This leads us to consideration of alternative intervals. A number of natural alternatives are presented, each with its motivation and con- text. Each interval is examinedfor its coverage probability andits length. Basedon this analysis, we recommendthe Wilson interval or the equal- tailedJeffreys prior interval for small n andthe interval suggestedin Agresti andCoull for larger n. We also provide an additional frequentist justification for use of the Jeffreys interval.

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