Examples of Risks Having the Potential for Catastrophic Consequences
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This chapter aims at raising the consciousness about potential catastrophic risks by presenting a cross section of examples. A systematic application of the risk assessment thought process provides the necessary guidance on which risks should have priority for future case studies and the taking of action. There are many factors to consider besides just the human fatalities involved. These include information on the resources and time needed to mitigate or reduce the consequences of threatening events and conditions. The examples illustrated in this chapter are those of disastrous consequences that could follow a collapse of the world's economies. Some economists fear such an event, which could be followed by global war, famine, and disease. Economic issues of concern are the heavy dependence of countries on foreign oil and its impact on economic stability, possible changes of the role of the U.S. dollar in world currency markets, and changing patterns of economic bases from factories, machinery, etc., to services and paper commodities. Another example of concern to many is the growing dependence of economies and the general conduct of businesses and society infrastructures on electronic communications. Knowledge about the risks faced is the key. A structured and systematic approach for developing a roadmap of risks requiring action should include certain fundamental considerations. The risks should be understood in terms of their likelihoods and consequences. Actions to take should then be based on costs and risk benefits, and value judgments, that is, the principles of decision analysis.
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