Probabilistic Evaluation of Ecological and Economic Objectives of River Basin Management Reveals a Potential Flaw in the Goal Setting of the EU Water Framework Directive

The biological status of European lakes has not improved as expected despite up-to-date legislation and ecological standards. As a result, the realism of objectives and the attainment of related ecological standards are under doubt. This paper gets to the bottom of a river basin management plan of a eutrophic lake in Finland and presents the ecological and economic impacts of environmental and societal drivers and planned management measures. For these purposes, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation of a diffuse nutrient load, lake water quality and cost-benefit models. Simulations were integrated into a Bayesian influence diagram that revealed the basic uncertainties. It turned out that the attainment of good ecological status as qualified in the Water Framework Directive of the European Union is unlikely within given socio–economic constraints. Therefore, management objectives and ecological and economic standards need to be reassessed and reset to provide a realistic goal setting for management. More effort should be put into the evaluation of the total monetary benefits and on the monitoring of lake phosphorus balances to reduce the uncertainties, and the resulting margin of safety and costs and risks of planned management measures.

[1]  John Bromley,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Implementing Participatory Water Management: Recent Advances in Theory, Practice and Evaluation Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain , 2010 .

[2]  F. Cabezas.  The European Water Framework Directive: A Framework? , 2012 .

[3]  M. Hare,et al.  Exploring the Gap Between Water Managers and Researchers: Difficulties of Model-Based Tools to Support Practical Water Management , 2007 .

[4]  T. Huttula,et al.  Statistical Dimensioning of Nutrient Loading Reduction: LLR Assessment Tool for Lake Managers , 2015, Environmental Management.

[5]  Tuomo M Saloranta,et al.  Benchmark Criteria: A Tool for Selecting Appropriate Models in the Field of Water Management , 2003, Environmental management.

[6]  Mark E. Borsuk,et al.  Does high forecast uncertainty preclude effective decision support? , 2005, Environ. Model. Softw..

[7]  Jan Köhler,et al.  Lake responses to reduced nutrient loading - an analysis of contemporary long-term data from 35 case studies , 2005 .

[8]  John Bromley,et al.  Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[9]  Sandra Johnson,et al.  Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management , 2012, Integrated environmental assessment and management.

[10]  Olli Malve,et al.  Estimating nutrients and chlorophyll a relationships in Finnish Lakes. , 2006, Environmental science & technology.

[11]  Heikki Haario,et al.  Estimation of winter respiration rates and prediction of oxygen regime in a lake using Bayesian inference , 2005 .

[12]  Á. Borja,et al.  The European Water Framework Directive at the age of 10: a critical review of the achievements with recommendations for the future. , 2010, The Science of the total environment.

[13]  Carel Dieperink,et al.  Uncertainty management strategies: Lessons from the regional implementation of the Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands , 2011 .

[14]  Heikki Haario,et al.  Bayesian modelling of algal mass occurrences - using adaptive MCMC methods with a lake water quality model , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[15]  Iain White,et al.  Environmental planning and management in an age of uncertainty: the case of the Water Framework Directive. , 2012, Journal of environmental management.

[16]  J. Carstensen,et al.  Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets , 2009 .

[17]  Rafael Rumí,et al.  Bayesian networks in environmental modelling , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[18]  P. Kauppila,et al.  Participatory operations model for cost-efficient monitoring and modeling of river basins — A systematic approach , 2016, The Science of the total environment.

[19]  O. Malve.  Water quality prediction for river basin management , 2007 .

[20]  A. Lepistö,et al.  A National-Scale Nutrient Loading Model for Finnish Watersheds—VEMALA , 2015, Environmental Modeling & Assessment.

[21]  Turo Hjerppe,et al.  A practical tool for selecting cost-effective combinations of phosphorus loading mitigation measures in Finnish catchments , 2015 .

[22]  David N. Barton,et al.  Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management -- Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin , 2008 .

[23]  John Bromley,et al.  Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain. , 2013, Journal of environmental management.

[24]  John Bromley,et al.  Integrated Assessment of the European WFD Implementation in Extremely Overexploited Aquifers Through Participatory Modelling , 2011 .

[25]  O. Varis,et al.  Bayesian influence diagram approach to complex environmental management including observational design , 1989 .

[26]  Marko Laine,et al.  Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models , 2008 .

[27]  Serena H. Chen,et al.  Good practice in Bayesian network modelling , 2012, Environ. Model. Softw..

[28]  Wim J. de Lange,et al.  Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface , 2007 .

[29]  Anders L. Madsen,et al.  Probabilistic Networks - An Introduction to Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams , 2005 .

[30]  Annukka Lehikoinen,et al.  Bayesian Network applications for environmental risk assessment , 2014 .

[31]  Peter A. Vanrolleghem,et al.  Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - A framework and guidance , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[32]  Laura Uusitalo,et al.  Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling , 2007 .