Expected Detection and False Alarm Rates for Transiting Jovian Planets

Ground-based searches for transiting Jupiter-sized planets have so far produced few detections of planets but many of stellar systems with eclipse depths, durations, and orbital periods that resemble those expected from planets. The detection rates prove to be consistent with our present knowledge of binary and multiple-star systems and of Jovian-mass extrasolar planets. Space-based searches for transiting Earth-sized planets will be largely unaffected by the false alarm sources that afflict ground-based searches, except for distant eclipsing binaries whose light is strongly diluted by that of a foreground star. A by-product of the rate estimation is evidence that the period distribution of extrasolar planets is depressed for periods between 5 and 200 days.