Adult age differences in the realism of confidence judgments: overconfidence, format dependence, and cognitive predictors.
暂无分享,去创建一个
Lars-Göran Nilsson | Patrik Hansson | Peter Juslin | P. Juslin | L. Nilsson | M. Rönnlund | Patrik Hansson | Michael Rönnlund | Michael Rönnlund
[1] A. Tversky,et al. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence , 1992, Cognitive Psychology.
[2] D Kahneman,et al. On the reality of cognitive illusions. , 1996, Psychological review.
[3] Endel Tulving,et al. Free recall of trilingual lists , 1970 .
[4] N. Cowan. The magical number 4 in short-term memory: A reconsideration of mental storage capacity , 2001, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.
[5] Daniel Västfjäll,et al. Adult Age Differences in Dual Information Processes: Implications for the Role of Affective and Deliberative Processes in Older Adults' Decision Making , 2007, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.
[6] H. Markowitsch. Cognitive neuroscience of memory , 1998 .
[7] P. Bentler,et al. Cutoff criteria for fit indexes in covariance structure analysis : Conventional criteria versus new alternatives , 1999 .
[8] Paul B. Baltes,et al. Theoretical propositions of life-span developmental psychology : On the dynamics between growth and decline , 1987 .
[9] Anders Winman,et al. The naïve intuitive statistician: a naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. , 2007, Psychological review.
[10] Dean P. Foster,et al. Precision and Accuracy of Judgmental Estimation , 1997 .
[11] A. H. Murphy,et al. Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature , 1977 .
[12] J. W. Hutchinson,et al. Knowledge Calibration: What Consumers Know and What They Think They Know , 2000 .
[13] Henrik Olsson,et al. Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: a critical examination of the hard-easy effect. , 2000 .
[14] T. Salthouse,et al. Decomposing adult age differences in working memory. , 1991 .
[15] P. Juslin,et al. Format dependence in subjective probability calibration , 1999 .
[16] Colin Camerer,et al. Aging and decision making: a comparison between neurologically healthy elderly and young individuals , 2005 .
[17] M. J. Emerson,et al. The Unity and Diversity of Executive Functions and Their Contributions to Complex “Frontal Lobe” Tasks: A Latent Variable Analysis , 2000, Cognitive Psychology.
[18] G. Gigerenzer,et al. Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. , 1991, Psychological review.
[19] Jack B. Soll,et al. Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.
[20] R. Sternberg. Advances in the psychology of human intelligence , 1982 .
[21] M. Albert. Aging, dementia and memory , 1995, Journal of the Neurological Sciences.
[22] Ulman Lindenberger,et al. Social participation attenuates decline in perceptual speed in old and very old age. , 2005, Psychology and aging.
[23] Klaus Oberauer,et al. Working memory and intelligence--their correlation and their relation: comment on Ackerman, Beier, and Boyle (2005). , 2005, Psychological bulletin.
[24] L. Nyberg,et al. Stability, growth, and decline in adult life span development of declarative memory: cross-sectional and longitudinal data from a population-based study. , 2005, Psychology and aging.
[25] Henrik Olsson,et al. Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks , 2003 .
[26] Andrew M. Parker,et al. Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/bdm.481 Decision-making Competence: External Validation through an Individual-differences Approach , 2005 .
[27] U. Bayen,et al. Aging and conditional probability judgments: a global matching approach. , 2005, Psychology and aging.
[28] Sabina Kleitman,et al. Ecological and person-oriented aspects of metacognitive processes in test-taking. , 2001 .
[29] W. Johnson,et al. Handbook of Aging and Cognition , 2008 .
[30] M. Perlmutter. What Is Memory Aging the Aging Of , 1978 .
[31] P. Juslin. The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items , 1994 .
[32] Lawrence D. Phillips,et al. Personality and probabilistic thinking: An exploratory study , 1979 .
[33] P M Bentler,et al. Choice of structural model via parsimony: a rationale based on precision. , 1989, Psychological bulletin.
[34] M. M. Johnson,et al. Age differences in decision making: a process methodology for examining strategic information processing. , 1990, Journal of gerontology.
[35] R. Engle,et al. On the division of short-term and working memory: an examination of simple and complex span and their relation to higher order abilities. , 2007, Psychological bulletin.
[36] R. Wolfe,et al. Personality Correlates of Confidence in One's Decisions , 1990 .
[37] Jack B. Soll. Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure☆ , 1996 .
[38] T. Salthouse,et al. What needs to be explained to account for age-related effects on multiple cognitive variables? , 2003, Psychology and aging.
[39] Pamela K. Smith,et al. Models of visuospatial and verbal memory across the adult life span. , 2002, Psychology and aging.
[40] Brian L. Cutler,et al. Self-monitoring and the association between confidence and accuracy ☆ , 1989 .
[41] Randall W Engle,et al. Working memory, short-term memory, and general fluid intelligence: a latent-variable approach. , 1999, Journal of experimental psychology. General.
[42] Michael C. Pyryt. Human cognitive abilities: A survey of factor analytic studies , 1998 .
[43] R. Engle. Working Memory Capacity as Executive Attention , 2002 .
[44] L. Nyberg,et al. The betula prospective cohort study: Memory, health, and aging , 1997 .
[45] Lynn Hasher,et al. Wisdom and aging: irrational preferences in college students but not older adults , 2001, Cognition.
[46] J. Gustafsson,et al. General and Specific Abilities as Predictors of School Achievement. , 1993, Multivariate behavioral research.
[47] Joshua Klayman,et al. Overconfidence in interval estimates. , 2004, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.
[48] Richard A. Block,et al. Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis , 1991 .
[49] B. Fischhoff,et al. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory , 1980 .
[50] T. Salthouse. Relations between cognitive abilities and measures of executive functioning. , 2005, Neuropsychology.
[51] Anders Winman,et al. The role of short-term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty. , 2008, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.
[52] Anders Winman,et al. Subjective probability intervals: how to reduce overconfidence by interval evaluation. , 2004, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.
[53] Paul Slovic,et al. Task complexity and older adults' decision-making competence. , 2005, Psychology and aging.
[54] I. Erev,et al. Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: The Role of Error in Judgment Processes. , 1994 .
[55] Andrew M. Parker,et al. Individual differences in adult decision-making competence. , 2007, Journal of personality and social psychology.
[56] T. Salthouse. The processing-speed theory of adult age differences in cognition. , 1996, Psychological review.
[57] B. Fischhoff,et al. Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 , 1982 .
[58] P. Verhaeghen,et al. Aging and verbal memory span: a meta-analysis. , 2005, The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences.
[59] Christopher B. Mayhorn,et al. Decisions, Decisions: Analysis of Age, Cohort, and Time of Testing on Framing of Risky Decision Options , 2002, Hum. Factors.
[60] Alan S. Kaufman,et al. WAIS-III IQs, Horn's theory, and generational changes from young adulthood to old age , 2001 .
[61] Klaus Fiedler,et al. Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition , 2005 .
[62] P. Ackerman,et al. Working Memory and Intelligence : The Same or Different Constructs ? , 2005 .
[63] A. Tversky,et al. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.
[64] L. Nilsson,et al. Adult life-span patterns in WAIS-R Block Design performance: Cross-sectional versus longitudinal age gradients and relations to demographic factors , 2006 .
[65] M. Rönnlund,et al. Risky Decision Making Across Three Arenas of Choice: Are Younger and Older Adults Differently Susceptible to Framing Effects? , 2005, The Journal of general psychology.
[66] Lazar Stankov,et al. Age differences in the realism of confidence judgements: A calibration study using tests of fluid and crystallized intelligence , 1996 .
[67] U. Staudinger,et al. Lifespan psychology: theory and application to intellectual functioning. , 1999, Annual review of psychology.
[68] Maria Larsson,et al. Cognitive functioning in very old age , 1999 .
[69] Keith E. Stanovich,et al. Individual differences in rational thought. , 1998 .
[70] P A Klaczynski,et al. Personal theories, intellectual ability, and epistemological beliefs: adult age differences in everyday reasoning biases. , 2000, Psychology and aging.
[71] Mats Björkman,et al. Brunswikian and Thurstonian Origins of Bias in Probability Assessment: On the Interpretation of Stochastic Components of Judgment , 1997 .
[72] P. Juslin,et al. Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: a critical examination of the hard-easy effect. , 2000, Psychological review.
[73] D. Kahneman,et al. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , 2002 .
[74] S. Folstein,et al. "Mini-mental state". A practical method for grading the cognitive state of patients for the clinician. , 1975, Journal of psychiatric research.
[75] K. Schaie. The course of adult intellectual development. , 1994, The American psychologist.
[76] D. Kuhn,et al. Judgements under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , 1984 .
[77] C. K. Mertz,et al. Aging and decision‐making competence: an analysis of comprehension and consistency skills in older versus younger adults considering health‐plan options , 2002 .
[78] Magnus Persson,et al. PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): a "lazy" algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge , 2002 .
[79] G. Keren. Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues , 1991 .
[80] T. Salthouse. Structural models of the relations between age and measures of cognitive functioning , 2001 .
[81] Klaus Fiedler,et al. Taking the interface between mind and environment seriously , 2006 .
[82] Y. Kareev,et al. On the misperception of variability. , 2002, Journal of experimental psychology. General.
[83] John L. Horn,et al. Major abilities and development in the adult period. , 1992 .
[84] K. Stanovich,et al. Heuristics and Biases: Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate? , 2002 .
[85] E. Brunswik. Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. , 1955, Psychological review.
[86] B. Fischhoff,et al. Reasons for confidence. , 1980 .
[87] David J. Therriault,et al. A latent variable analysis of working memory capacity, short-term memory capacity, processing speed, and general fluid intelligence , 2002 .
[88] Daniel P. Forbes. Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others , 2005 .
[89] A. Jensen,et al. The g factor , 1996, Nature.
[90] N. Sanders,et al. Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52 , 1992 .
[91] Cindy M. de Frias,et al. Revisiting the dedifferentiation hypothesis with longitudinal multi-cohort data. , 2007 .
[92] S. Mutter,et al. Age differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments. , 1996, Experimental aging research.
[93] J. Frank Yates,et al. Judgment and Decision Making , 1990 .
[94] David H. Krantz,et al. Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill? , 1983, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.