Simulation Of Mine Water Inflow: Case Study Of The Štavalj Coal Mine (Southwestern Serbia)

The inflow of mine water to mining operations is often caused by random events such as precipitation. Consequently, the mine water inflow regime can be defined as a function of random events applying the theory of random processes. Regression models of the multiple linear correlation type have been used to simulate the inflow of mine water into mining operations, produce short-range predictions and facilitate rapid response inside the mine. The significance of such models lies in the ability to simulate and predict the consequences (mine water inflow), caused by events of a random nature (meteorological parameters: precipitation and air temperature). The presented prognostic models have been calibrated for mine water inflow to the Stavalj Coal Mine in southwestern Serbia. Mathematical dependencies were defined based on daily mine water inflow rates recorded during the period from 2003 to 2011, which can be used to generate short-range (1-7 day) predictions of mean daily mine water inflow rates to the Stavalj Coal Mine. A strong correlation (coefficient of correlation r = 0.93, Sig. = 0.00) was derived for the one-day forecast. The coefficients of correlation for predictions of mean daily mine water inflow rates related to time periods of two, three...seven days gradually declined to 0.63 (7-day mean daily inflow rate).