A comparative study of hybrid machine learning techniques for customer lifetime value prediction

Purpose – Customer lifetime value (CLV) has received increasing attention in database marketing. Enterprises can retain valuable customers by the correct prediction of valuable customers. In the literature, many data mining and machine learning techniques have been applied to develop CLV models. Specifically, hybrid techniques have shown their superiorities over single techniques. However, it is unknown which hybrid model can perform the best in customer value prediction. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to compares two types of commonly‐used hybrid models by classification+classification and clustering+classification hybrid approaches, respectively, in terms of customer value prediction.Design/methodology/approach – To construct a hybrid model, multiple techniques are usually combined in a two‐stage manner, in which the first stage is based on either clustering or classification techniques, which can be used to pre‐process the data. Then, the output of the first stage (i.e. the processed data) is ...

[1]  John R. Miglautsch Application of RFM principles: What to do with 1–1–1 customers? , 2002 .

[2]  Richard Koch,et al.  The 80/20 Principle , 1997 .

[3]  D. Hosmer,et al.  Applied Logistic Regression , 1991 .

[4]  謝楠楨 An integrated data mining and behavioral scoring model for analyzing bank customers , 2004 .

[5]  Chih-Fong Tsai,et al.  Customer churn prediction by hybrid neural networks , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[6]  Anil K. Jain,et al.  Data clustering: a review , 1999, CSUR.

[7]  J. Miglautsch Thoughts on RFM scoring , 2000 .

[8]  Su-Yeon Kim,et al.  Customer segmentation and strategy development based on customer lifetime value: A case study , 2006, Expert Syst. Appl..

[9]  D. W.,et al.  CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE: MARKETING MODELS AND APPLICATIONS , 1998 .

[10]  J. Ross Quinlan,et al.  Induction of Decision Trees , 1986, Machine Learning.

[11]  Nan-Chen Hsieh,et al.  An integrated data mining and behavioral scoring model for analyzing bank customers , 2004, Expert Syst. Appl..

[12]  J. A. Hartigan,et al.  A k-means clustering algorithm , 1979 .

[13]  Chih-Fong Tsai,et al.  Market segmentation based on hierarchical self-organizing map for markets of multimedia on demand , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[14]  Gregory R. Madey,et al.  The Design and Validation of a Hybrid Information System for the Auditor's Going Concern Decision , 1998, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[15]  Ling Li,et al.  ADTreesLogit model for customer churn prediction , 2009, Ann. Oper. Res..

[16]  Dominique M. Hanssens,et al.  Modeling Customer Lifetime Value , 2006 .

[17]  Arthur Middleton Hughes,et al.  Strategic database marketing , 2005 .

[18]  You-Shyang Chen,et al.  Classifying the segmentation of customer value via RFM model and RS theory , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[19]  Hsin-Hung Wu,et al.  A case study of applying data mining techniques in an outfitter's customer value analysis , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[20]  Duen-Ren Liu,et al.  Hybrid approaches to product recommendation based on customer lifetime value and purchase preferences , 2005, J. Syst. Softw..

[21]  Werner Reinartz,et al.  Customer Relationship Management: A Databased Approach , 2005 .

[22]  Simon Haykin,et al.  Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation , 1998 .

[23]  Duen-Ren Liu,et al.  Integrating AHP and data mining for product recommendation based on customer lifetime value , 2005, Inf. Manag..

[24]  Leonard D. Goodstein,et al.  Measuring customer value: Gaining the strategic advantage , 1996 .

[25]  Teuvo Kohonen,et al.  Self-Organizing Maps , 2010 .

[26]  Chih-Fong Tsai,et al.  Variable selection by association rules for customer churn prediction of multimedia on demand , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[27]  Xiaonan Li,et al.  Operations research and data mining , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[28]  Cheng-Seen Ho,et al.  Toward a hybrid data mining model for customer retention , 2007, Knowl. Based Syst..

[29]  Jatinder N. D. Gupta,et al.  Neural networks in business: techniques and applications for the operations researcher , 2000, Comput. Oper. Res..

[30]  Euiho Suh,et al.  An LTV model and customer segmentation based on customer value: a case study on the wireless telecommunication industry , 2004, Expert Syst. Appl..

[31]  Xi Chen,et al.  Hybrid Models Using Unsupervised Clustering for Prediction of Customer Churn , 2009, J. Organ. Comput. Electron. Commer..

[32]  Bob Stone,et al.  Successful Direct Marketing Methods , 1975 .

[33]  Harald Hruschka,et al.  Market segmentation by maximum likelihood clustering using choice elasticities , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..