Toward anticipating pest responses to fruit farms

An automated tool was successfully engineered for monitoring pest populations.Observation data revealed important pest population dynamics.Revealed how endogenous and exogenous factors affect the pest population.12days rhythm and 16days life cycle have been revealed via collected data. The Oriental Fruit Fly (OFF), Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is one of most devastating insect pests that have periodically caused serious damage to fruit farms in Taiwan and many countries in the world. In the past, many studies reported that the population dynamics of OFF was partially correlated to the weather and the historical population development of OFF in the field. By making the best use of modern info-communication technologies (ICTs), long-term pest population data and microclimate variables measured with uniquely fine spatiotemporal resolution are now available to reveal the population dynamics of OFF. An analysis of data over three years using the Vector Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average model with eXogenous variables (VARMAX) was proposed to unravel the regulatory mechanism between the population dynamics of OFF and microclimate factors. In addition, the proposed model provides a 7-day forecast for population dynamics of OFF. The accuracy of 7-day risk level forecasting yielded by the proposed model ranges from 0.87 to 0.97, and the average root-mean squared errors of forecasting the population dynamics fall in the interval between 0.31 and 4.95 per day per farm. The proposed forecasting model can allow authorities to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of OFF and anticipate pest-related problems, so they can make preemptive and effective pest management decisions before the real problems occur.

[1]  D. Joseph,et al.  Capture Probability of Released Males of Two Bactrocera Species (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Detection Traps in California , 2010, Journal of economic entomology.

[2]  Cheng-Long Chuang,et al.  Using automated monitoring systems to uncover pest population dynamics in agricultural fields , 2011 .

[3]  Chwan-Lu Tseng,et al.  Application of a web-based remote agro-ecological monitoring system for observing spatial distribution and dynamics of Bactrocera dorsalis in fruit orchards , 2012, Precision Agriculture.

[4]  M. Mwatawala,et al.  An overview of Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) invasions and their speculated dominancy over native fruit fly species in Tanzania. , 2009 .

[5]  Chwan-Lu Tseng,et al.  A GSM-based remote wireless automatic monitoring system for field information: A case study for ecological monitoring of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) , 2008 .

[6]  Richard T. Roush,et al.  ACTIVE ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IN INSECT PEST AND WEED CONTROL: INTERVENTION WITH A PLAN FOR LEARNING , 2002 .

[7]  Ata-ul-Mohsin,et al.  Weather-based models to predict the population densities of melon fruit fly, Dacus cucurbitae Coq , 1991 .

[8]  Colin S. Pittendrigh,et al.  V. An Oscillator Model for Biological Clocks , 1958 .

[9]  P. Sreekanth,et al.  Predicting the oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) trap catch using artificial neural networks: a case study , 2011 .

[10]  R. Bos,et al.  Estimation of autoregressive spectra with randomly missing data , 2003, Proceedings of the 20th IEEE Instrumentation Technology Conference (Cat. No.03CH37412).

[11]  Robert L. Nowack,et al.  Application of Autoregressive Extrapolation to Seismic Tomography , 2004 .

[12]  Mark Reynolds,et al.  A simulation modelling approach to forecast establishment and spread of Bactrocera fruit flies , 2012 .

[13]  R. Vargas,et al.  The Hawaii Fruit Fly Area-Wide Pest Management Program: Accomplishments and Future Directions , 2007 .

[14]  A. Verghese,et al.  Wind speed as an independent variable to forecast the trap catch of the fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis) , 2006 .

[15]  Peng Chen,et al.  Population dynamics of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) and analysis of the factors influencing the population in Ruili, Yunnan Province, China , 2006 .

[16]  Catherine Allan,et al.  Comprar Adaptive Environmental Management · A Practitioner's Guide | Allan, Catherine | 9789048127108 | Springer , 2009 .

[17]  M. Mwatawala,et al.  Host range and distribution of fruit-infesting pestiferous fruit flies (Diptera, Tephritidae) in selected areas of Central Tanzania , 2009, Bulletin of Entomological Research.

[18]  David B Lindenmayer,et al.  Adaptive monitoring: a new paradigm for long-term research and monitoring. , 2009, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[19]  A. Verghese,et al.  A farmer-friendly trap for the management of the fruit fly Bactrocera spp. (Tephritidae: Diptera) , 2006 .

[20]  Raymond L. Czaplewski,et al.  Adaptive Monitoring Design for Ecosystem Management , 1996 .

[21]  K Shea,et al.  Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control. , 1998, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[22]  J. E. Harker.  Circadian Rhythms in Insects , 1973 .

[23]  C. Folke,et al.  REDISCOVERY OF TRADITIONAL ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE AS ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT , 2000 .

[24]  Chien-Chung Chen,et al.  Movement of the Oriental Fruit Fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), in a Guava Orchard with Special Reference to Its Population Changes , 2006 .

[25]  Xiang-Yao Zheng,et al.  Development of an autonomous early warning system for Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) outbreaks in remote fruit orchards , 2012 .

[26]  A. Clarke,et al.  Invasive phytophagous pests arising through a recent tropical evolutionary radiation: the Bactrocera dorsalis complex of fruit flies. , 2005, Annual review of entomology.

[27]  H. Ye,et al.  Population dynamics of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the Kunming area, southwestern China , 2005 .

[28]  P. David,et al.  Climatic niche partitioning following successive invasions by fruit flies in La Réunion. , 2006, The Journal of animal ecology.

[29]  K. Tan,et al.  Adult Population Dynamics of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Relation to Host Phenology and Weather in Two Villages of Penang Island, Malaysia , 1994 .

[30]  Daniel Pakkala,et al.  A survey of methods and approaches for reliable dynamic service compositions , 2013, Service Oriented Computing and Applications.

[31]  Eileen M. Cullen,et al.  Quantifying trade-offs between pest sampling time and precision in commercial IPM sampling programs. , 2000 .

[32]  R. Shukla,et al.  Population fluctuations of the oriental fruit fly, Dacus dorsalis Hendel in relation to hosts and abiotic factors , 1985 .

[33]  B. S. Fletcher,et al.  Studies on the rhythm of mating in the Queensland fruit fly, Dacus tryoni , 1971 .

[34]  R. W. Carter,et al.  Toward More Reflexive Use of Adaptive Management , 2009 .

[35]  R. McLain,et al.  Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls , 1996, Environmental management.

[36]  A. Castrignanò,et al.  Spatio-temporal population dynamics and area-wide delineation of Bactrocera oleae monitoring zones using multi-variate geostatistics , 2012, Precision Agriculture.

[37]  K. Purushotham,et al.  Seasonal incidence and population fluctuation of fruit flies in mango and guava , 2001 .

[38]  Gustavo E. A. P. A. Batista,et al.  An analysis of four missing data treatment methods for supervised learning , 2003, Appl. Artif. Intell..

[39]  R. Vargas,et al.  Life History and Demographic Parameters of Three Laboratory-reared Tephritids (Diptera: Tephritidae) , 1984 .

[40]  M. Bonizzoni,et al.  Globalization and fruitfly invasion and expansion: the medfly paradigm , 2007, Genetica.