Investigating, forecasting and proposing emission mitigation pathways for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion only: A case study of selected countries

Abstract In this study, we investigate the direction of causal relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion only (CO2EFFCO) and economic growth for the USA, China, Canada, and Nigeria by using annual time series data for the period 1990–2016. The results depict a unidirectional causality running from gross domestic product per capita to CO2EFFCO for the USA, China, and Canada. However, no causality direction was found for Nigeria. Furthermore, with the quest to achieve cleaner energy targets, we formulate long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm devoid of exogenous variables and assumptions required to forecast CO2EFFCO for the USA, China, Canada, and Nigeria. Based on the performance of our algorithm, we propose emission-mitigation pathways for the countries herein to follow to achieve zero CO2EFFCO by the year 2030. The emission-mitigation pathways demonstrate that intensifying and promoting current and future policies that mitigate CO2EFFCO based on our projections are enough to reduce energy-related CO2EFFCO to a considerable level.

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