Evaluation of the flexibility approach in construction of Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2015 by ENTSO-E

The paper objective is the review and proposal for enhancement of the system flexibility-related calculations in the recent release of Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2015 by ENTSO-E. The document presents generation adequacy assessments and introduces residual load and RES ramping analyses as new elements in flexibility calculations. This research focuses on the evaluation of the ENTSO-E report in two major aspects: The first aim of this paper is to re-create forecast report for the Polish power system based on ENTSO-E SO&AF 2015 guidelines. Second, the study indicates imperfections in the new approach presented in the SO&AF 2015. Hence, the additional objective of the paper is to suggest improvements to the released report both in terms of calculations itself and presentation of the results. Finally, the authors compare the outcome of both methods and formulate conclusions.

[1]  T. Surma,et al.  Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Sources in Poland as a Part of Commitment to the Polish and EU Energy Policy , 2014, Energies.

[2]  Thomas Hamacher,et al.  Integration of wind and solar power in Europe: Assessment of flexibility requirements , 2014 .

[3]  Urban Lundin,et al.  Power system flexibility need induced by wind and solar power intermittency on time scales of 1–14 days , 2015 .

[4]  James F Stubbins,et al.  The dynamics of electricity grid operation with increasing renewables and the path toward maximum renewable deployment , 2015 .

[5]  Joao P. S. Catalao,et al.  Overview of insular power systems under increasing penetration of renewable energy sources: Opportunities and challenges , 2015 .

[6]  Janet F. Barlow,et al.  Increasing thermal plant flexibility in a high renewables power system , 2015 .

[7]  Michal Wierzbowski,et al.  Local Energy Balancing and Ancillary Services in Low-Voltage Networks With Distributed Generation, Energy Storage, and Active Loads , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[8]  Hendrik Kondziella,et al.  Flexibility requirements of renewable energy based electricity systems – a review of research results and methodologies , 2016 .

[9]  Linda Barelli,et al.  Challenges in load balance due to renewable energy sources penetration: The possible role of energy storage technologies relative to the Italian case , 2015 .

[10]  Paul Denholm,et al.  Grid flexibility and storage required to achieve very high penetration of variable renewable electricity , 2011 .

[11]  Michal Wierzbowski,et al.  MILP model for long-term energy mix planning with consideration of power system reserves , 2016 .

[12]  Michal Wierzbowski,et al.  MILP Formulation for Energy Mix Optimization , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics.

[13]  Joachim Bertsch,et al.  Flexibility in Europe's power sector - an additional requirement or an automatic complement? , 2013 .

[14]  George Zillante,et al.  Comprehensive assessment of flexibility of the wind power industry chain , 2015 .