A Delphi Panel Derived Scenario on Road Transport Informatics Evolution

Modern information and microelectronic technology can be used to improve road traffic. The aim of this study is to create scenarios on how new information systems for improved road traffic can evolve. What are the driving forces? Who can act? Who can benefit? What are the social impacts? Through the use of a Delphi panel of professionals, researchers and informed generalists, we have gathered impulses for the scenarios on how information technology, communication means and control systems can reshape future road traffic. The issue studied is how this "Road Transport Informatics" (RTI) will evolve. A short history of road information systems is given and the problem formulation and methodology is discussed. A summary of panelists' responses on events, impacts, actors and barriers follows. Our summaries and conclusions on a possible RTI evolution are presented as scenario scenes for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2040.