Scientific Method in Brief: Case studies

The fundamental principles of the scientific method are essential for enhancing perspective, increasing productivity, and stimulating innovation. These principles include deductive and inductive logic, probability, parsimony and hypothesis testing, as well as science's presuppositions, limitations, ethics and bold claims of rationality and truth. The examples and case studies drawn upon in this book span the physical, biological and social sciences; include applications in agriculture, engineering and medicine; and also explore science's interrelationships with disciplines in the humanities such as philosophy and law. Informed by position papers on science from the American Association for the Advancement of Science, National Academy of Sciences and National Science Foundation, this book aligns with a distinctively mainstream vision of science. It is an ideal resource for anyone undertaking a systematic study of scientific method for the first time, from undergraduates to professionals in both the sciences and the humanities.

[1]  Frederick Reif,et al.  Understanding and teaching important scientific thought processes , 1995 .

[2]  J. D. Bastable Ockham: Philosophical Writings , 1958 .

[3]  Barry Gower,et al.  Scientific Method: A Historical and Philosophical Introduction , 1996 .

[4]  Kenneth Tobin,et al.  The Practice of constructivism in science education , 1993 .

[5]  Madhusree Mukerjee,et al.  Undressing the Emperor , 1998 .

[6]  T. Bayes An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances , 2003 .

[7]  Albert Einstein,et al.  Ideas and Opinions , 1954 .

[8]  William F. McComas,et al.  The nature of science in science education : rationales and strategies , 1998 .

[9]  Harold I. Brown Observation and objectivity , 1987 .

[10]  Chih-Chiang Yang Confirmatory and Structural Categorical Latent Variables Models , 2007 .

[11]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know? , 2010, Philosophy of Science.

[12]  James S. Clark,et al.  Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians , 2004 .

[13]  P. Godfrey‐Smith Theory and reality : an introduction to the philosophy of science , 2003 .

[14]  Paul Guyer,et al.  The Cambridge companion to Kant , 1992 .

[15]  M. Polanyi Personal Knowledge: Towards a post-critical philosophy , 1959 .

[16]  H. Gauch,et al.  Two New Strategies for Detecting and Understanding QTL × Environment Interactions , 2011 .

[17]  P. Griffiths,et al.  Reshaping the graduate education of scientists and engineers. , 1995, Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges.

[18]  John Horgan,et al.  The Worst Enemy of Science , 1993 .

[19]  Elisabeth A. Lloyd,et al.  Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models , 2010, Philosophy of Science.

[20]  W. Schulze Field Experiments in Food and Resource Economics Research: Discussion , 2009 .

[21]  M. R. Matthews,et al.  In defense of modest goals when teaching about the nature of science , 1998 .

[22]  J. Losee A historical introduction to the philosophy of science , 1972 .

[23]  W. Salmon The foundations of scientific inference , 1967 .

[24]  Mortimer J. Adler,et al.  Aristotle for Everybody: Difficult Thought Made Easy , 1978 .

[25]  W. Myrvold Bayesianism and Diverse Evidence: A Reply to Andrew Wayne , 1996, Philosophy of Science.

[26]  H. Piepho,et al.  Marker pair selection for mapping quantitative trait loci. , 2001, Genetics.

[27]  J. Kemeny A Philosopher Looks At Science , 1960 .

[28]  John Horgan,et al.  Profile: Reluctant Revolutionary , 1991 .

[29]  Peter Urbach,et al.  Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach , 1989 .

[30]  R. V. Woudenberg,et al.  The Cambridge Companion to Thomas Reid , 2004 .

[31]  Luke Glynn,et al.  A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation , 2011, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

[32]  James O. Berger,et al.  Statistical Analysis and the Illusion of Objectivity , 1988 .

[33]  I. Ehrlich Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[34]  J. Hewitt,et al.  Ethnicity, Body Mass, and Genome-Wide Data , 2010, Biodemography and social biology.

[35]  D. Resnik The ethics of science: An introduction , 2005 .

[36]  A. Kolmogoroff Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung , 1933 .

[37]  Derek Hodson,et al.  Teaching and Learning about Science: Language, Theories, Methods, History, Traditions and Values , 2009 .

[38]  C. P. Snow,et al.  The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution , 2013 .

[39]  Gregory Hine The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief , 2006 .

[40]  H. Gauch Model selection and validation for yield trials with interaction , 1988 .

[41]  Nico Stehr,et al.  Society and Knowledge: Contemporary Perspectives in the Sociology of Knowledge and Science , 2005 .

[42]  J. S. Hunter,et al.  Statistics for experimenters : an introduction to design, data analysis, and model building , 1979 .

[43]  Steven Gimbel Exploring the scientific method : cases and questions , 2011 .

[44]  Sander Greenland,et al.  Causation and Causal Inference , 2021, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.

[45]  Halbert White,et al.  Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability , 2003 .

[46]  Leonard Kollender Nash,et al.  The nature of the natural sciences , 1963 .

[47]  John Leach,et al.  University science students' experiences of investigative project work and their images of science , 1999 .

[48]  K. Popper,et al.  The Logic of Scientific Discovery , 1960 .

[49]  Anton E. Lawson,et al.  What are the relative effects of reasoning ability and prior knowledge on biology achievement in expository and inquiry classes , 1998 .

[50]  Ronald L. Numbers,et al.  When Science and Christianity Meet , 2003 .

[51]  William Bechtel,et al.  Taking the Naturalistic Turn, or, How Real Philosophy of Science is Done Conversations with William Bechtel ... [Et Al.] , 1993 .

[52]  Stephen W. Raudenbush,et al.  5. Exploiting Spatial Dependence to Improve Measurement of Neighborhood Social Processes , 2009 .

[53]  Noretta Koertge,et al.  A house built on sand : exposing postmodernist myths about science , 1998 .

[54]  Detlef Urhahne,et al.  CONCEPTIONS OF THE NATURE OF SCIENCE—ARE THEY GENERAL OR CONTEXT SPECIFIC? , 2011 .

[55]  David Stove Popper and After: Four Modern Irrationalists , 2014 .

[56]  W. Thompson,et al.  Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials , 1987 .

[57]  J. Pearl Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference , 2000 .

[58]  Uri Zoller,et al.  The Disposition of Eleventh-Grade Science Students Toward Critical Thinking , 2000 .

[59]  Hugh G. Gauch,et al.  Prediction, Parsimony and Noise , 1993 .

[60]  Axel T. Brunger,et al.  Assessment of Phase Accuracy by Cross Validation: the Free R Value. Methods and Applications , 1993 .

[61]  Anne-Barrie Hunter,et al.  Becoming a scientist: The role of undergraduate research in students' cognitive, personal, and professional development , 2007 .

[62]  M. H. Carré,et al.  Robert Grosseteste and the origins of experimental science, 1100-1700 , 1954 .

[63]  Hugh G. Gauch,et al.  Winning the Accuracy Game , 2006 .

[64]  David R. Cox,et al.  Problems and solutions in theoretical statistics , 1979 .

[65]  The Importance of Teaching and Learning Nature of Science in the Early Childhood Years , 2011 .

[66]  Stuart Campbell Brown,et al.  Objectivity and Cultural Divergence , 1984 .

[67]  D. Stalker,et al.  Grue the New Riddle of Induction , 1994 .

[68]  B. Becker MindWorks: Making Scientific Concepts Come Alive , 2000 .

[69]  R. Audi The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy , 1995 .

[70]  Yu Xie Comment: The Essential Tension between Parsimony and Accuracy , 1998 .

[71]  James O. Berger,et al.  Ockham's Razor and Bayesian Analysis , 1992 .

[72]  R. Merton,et al.  On social structure and science , 1996 .

[73]  Implementation of an Explicit and Reflective Pedagogy in Introductory Biology Laboratories. , 2010 .

[74]  A. Mazza,et al.  Managing University Intellectual Property in the Public Interest. , 2011 .

[75]  P. Boghossian Fear of Knowledge: Against Relativism and Constructivism , 2006 .

[76]  T. Theocharis,et al.  Where science has gone wrong , 1987, Nature.

[77]  We cannot live by scepticism alone , 2009, Nature.

[78]  James T. Robinson Science teaching and the nature of science , 1965 .

[79]  M. R. Matthews Science teaching : the role of history and philosophy of science , 1994 .

[80]  T. Kuhn The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. , 1964 .

[81]  Ian Stewart,et al.  The Interrogator's Fallacy , 1996 .

[82]  Gerard J Kleywegt,et al.  Homo crystallographicus--quo vadis? , 2002, Structure.

[83]  Gerard J Kleywegt,et al.  Separating model optimization and model validation in statistical cross-validation as applied to crystallography. , 2007, Acta crystallographica. Section D, Biological crystallography.

[84]  Roderick M. Chisholm,et al.  Epistemology and Skepticism: An Enquiry into the Nature of Epistemology , 1991 .

[85]  R. Jeffrey The Logic of Decision , 1984 .

[86]  Laura C. Welsh,et al.  ‘The Use of History of Mechanics in Teaching Motion and Force Units’ , 2006 .

[87]  Emil Frei,et al.  The Effect of 6-Mercaptopurine on the Duration of Steroid-induced Remissions in Acute Leukemia: A Model for Evaluation of Other Potentially Useful Therapy , 1963 .

[88]  R. Swinburne The Resurrection of God Incarnate , 2003 .

[89]  Leo A. Goodman,et al.  5. Statistical Methods and Graphical Displays for Analyzing how the Association between Two Qualitative Variables Differs among Countries, among Groups, or over Time: A Modified Regression-Type Approach , 1998 .

[90]  Joanne Lobato Alternative Perspectives on the Transfer of Learning: History, Issues, and Challenges for Future Research , 2006 .

[91]  George Casella,et al.  Model selection error rates in nonparametric and parametric model comparisons , 2010 .

[92]  Hugh G. Gauch,et al.  Statistical analysis of regional yield trials: AMMI analysis of factorial designs. , 1992 .

[93]  A. Lawson,et al.  Development of Scientific Reasoning in College Biology: Do Two Levels of General Hypothesis-Testing Skills Exist?. , 2000 .

[94]  Imre Lakatos,et al.  problems in the philosophy of science , 1970 .

[95]  Wayne C. Myrvold,et al.  A Bayesian Account of the Virtue of Unification , 2003, Philosophy of Science.

[96]  J. Schupbach On a Bayesian Analysis of the Virtue of Unification* , 2005, Philosophy of Science.

[97]  A. Brunger Free R value: a novel statistical quantity for assessing the accuracy of crystal structures. , 1992 .

[98]  Helen R. Quinn,et al.  A Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas , 2013 .

[99]  Harold Dorn,et al.  Science and Technology in World History: An Introduction , 1999 .

[100]  A. G. Hamilton Logic for Mathematicians , 1978 .

[101]  C. Glymour,et al.  Making Things Happen: A Theory of Causal Explanation , 2004 .

[102]  D. Lindberg,et al.  The beginnings of Western science : the European scientific tradition in philosophical, religious, and institutional context, 600 B.C. to A.D. 1450 , 1992 .

[103]  G J Kleywegt,et al.  Where freedom is given, liberties are taken. , 1995, Structure.

[104]  Heinz Meyling,et al.  How to Change Students‘ Conceptions of the Epistemology of Science , 1997 .

[105]  R. C. Weast CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics , 1973 .

[106]  A. Wayne Bayesianism and Diverse Evidence , 1995, Philosophy of Science.

[107]  J. Losee Theories of Causality: From Antiquity to the Present , 2011 .

[108]  E. Craig,et al.  The Oxford dictionary of philosophy , 2008 .

[109]  Norman G. Lederman,et al.  Developing views of nature of science in an authentic context: An explicit approach to bridging the gap between nature of science and scientific inquiry , 2004 .

[110]  L. Wolpert,et al.  The Unnatural Nature of Science , 1993, The Lancet.

[111]  John H. Evans Science vs. Religion: What Scientists Really Think , 2010 .

[112]  J. Bennett,et al.  Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding , 2010 .

[113]  J. Shea National Science Education Standards , 1995 .

[114]  Anton E. Lawson,et al.  The Rejection of Nonscientific Beliefs about Life: Effects of Instruction and Reasoning Skills. , 1990 .

[115]  J. Dauben Georg Cantor and the Origins of Transfinite Set Theory , 1983 .

[116]  C. D. Broad,et al.  Ethics and the History of Philosophy. , 1953 .

[117]  K. Popper,et al.  Conjectures and refutations;: The growth of scientific knowledge , 1972 .

[118]  N. Goodman Fact, Fiction, and Forecast , 1955 .

[119]  Jarrett Leplin,et al.  A novel defense of scientific realism , 1997 .

[120]  Robert Nola,et al.  A Family Resemblance Approach to the Nature of Science for Science Education , 2011 .

[121]  Karl R. Popper,et al.  The Open Society and Its Enemies , 1952 .

[122]  Alan D. Sokal,et al.  Beyond the Hoax: Science, Philosophy and Culture , 2008 .

[123]  Heather Douglas Reintroducing Prediction to Explanation , 2009, Philosophy of Science.

[124]  J. Sprenger,et al.  The Logic of Explanatory Power , 2011, Philosophy of Science.

[125]  G. Frege Grundgesetze der Arithmetik , 1893 .

[126]  S. Marrone William of Auvergne and Robert Grosseteste: New Ideas of Truth in Early Thirteenth Century , 2014 .

[127]  Prediction, Explanation, and Testability as Criteria for Judging Statistical Theories , 1975, Philosophy of Science.

[128]  R. Swinburne Bayes's theorem , 2005 .

[129]  Roger Trigg,et al.  Reality at Risk: A Defence of Realism in Philosophy and the Sciences , 1989 .

[130]  C. Cameron,et al.  How Will They Vote? Predicting the Future Behavior of Supreme Court Nominees, 1937–2006 , 2009 .

[131]  Aristotle,et al.  The Basic Works of Aristotle , 1941 .

[132]  Roald Hoffmann,et al.  Ockham's Razor and Chemistry * , 1997 .

[133]  Troy D. Sadler,et al.  Learning Science through Research Apprenticeships: A Critical Review of the Literature. , 2009 .

[134]  W. Craig,et al.  The Blackwell Companion to Natural Theology , 2012 .

[135]  J. Bering The cognitive psychology of belief in the supernatural , 2006 .

[136]  Jan Sprenger,et al.  Evidence and Experimental Design in Sequential Trials , 2009, Philosophy of Science.

[137]  H. Gauch Responses and Clarifications Regarding Science and Worldviews , 2009 .

[138]  George Couvalis,et al.  The Philosophy of Science: Science and Objectivity , 1997 .

[139]  M. Shermer God's number is up. , 2004, Scientific American.

[140]  W J Broad,et al.  Paul Feyerabend: science and the anarchist. , 1979, Science.

[141]  David J. C. MacKay,et al.  Bayesian Interpolation , 1992, Neural Computation.

[142]  Peter J. Denning,et al.  A nation at risk: the imperative for educational reform , 1983, CACM.

[143]  Richard M. Weaver Ideas Have Consequences , 1948 .

[144]  T.M. Souders,et al.  Cutting the high cost of testing , 1991, IEEE Spectrum.

[145]  F. Cajori,et al.  Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy and his System of the World , 1935 .

[146]  L. P. Williams,et al.  The history of science in Western civilization , 1977 .

[147]  K. Wilson,et al.  Science as a cultural construct , 1997, Nature.

[148]  T. Bayes,et al.  Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics: IX. Thomas Bayes's Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances , 1958 .

[149]  Michael O. Finkelstein Basic Concepts of Probability and Statistics in the Law , 2009 .

[150]  William Gustason,et al.  Reasoning from Evidence: Inductive Logic , 1994 .

[151]  Using Action Research to Engage K-6 Teachers in Nature of Science Inquiry as Professional Development , 2010 .

[152]  Michael Potter Reason's Nearest Kin: Philosophies of Arithmetic from Kant to Carnap , 2000 .

[153]  Alan D. Sokal,et al.  Transgressing the Boundaries: Toward a Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity , 1996 .

[154]  N Wade,et al.  Thomas s. Kuhn: revolutionary theorist of science. , 1977, Science.

[155]  Philip J. Davis,et al.  Philosophy of Science: The Link Between Science and Philosophy , 1957 .

[156]  Gregory Neil Derry What Science Is and How It Works , 1999 .

[157]  J. Berger Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis , 1988 .

[158]  Ann Rosebery,et al.  Rethinking diversity in learning science: The logic of everyday sense‐making , 2001 .

[159]  G. Cherry,et al.  Introducing a Unified PCA Algorithm for Model Size Reduction , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing.

[160]  Abd-Krim Seghouane Model Selection Criteria for Image Restoration , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks.

[161]  John Horgan,et al.  The Intellectual Warrior , 1992 .

[162]  John Earman,et al.  Hume's Abject Failure: The Argument Against Miracles , 2000 .

[163]  D. F. Norton,et al.  The Cambridge Companion to Hume. , 1995 .

[164]  C. Stein Inadmissibility of the Usual Estimator for the Mean of a Multivariate Normal Distribution , 1956 .

[165]  K. Popper Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach , 1972 .

[166]  H. Jehle,et al.  Albert Einstein: Philosopher-Scientist. , 1951 .

[167]  Timothy J. McGrew Confirmation, Heuristics, and Explanatory Reasoning , 2003, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

[168]  K. Lonka,et al.  How do medical teachers address the problem of transfer? , 2008, Advances in health sciences education : theory and practice.

[169]  Christian P. Robert,et al.  The Bayesian choice : from decision-theoretic foundations to computational implementation , 2007 .

[170]  Ilse Rosenthal-Schneider,et al.  Reality and Scientific Truth: Discussions With Einstein, Von Laue, and Planck , 1981 .

[171]  W. M. Bolstad Introduction to Bayesian Statistics , 2004 .

[172]  A. Whitehead Science and the Modern World , 1926 .

[173]  B. J. Diggs St. Augustine Against the academicians , 1951, Traditio.

[174]  Hugh G. Gauch,et al.  Scientific method in practice , 2002 .

[175]  T. Broadbent,et al.  Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge , 1972 .

[176]  Norman Levitt,et al.  The flight from science and reason , 1996 .

[177]  Roger Trigg,et al.  Rationality and Science: Can Science Explain Everything? , 1993 .

[178]  H. Jeffreys,et al.  Theory of probability , 1896 .

[179]  A. Macintyre,et al.  Whose Justice? Which Rationality? , 1989, The New Social Theory Reader.

[180]  M. Wells,et al.  Statins and Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Moderate Risk Females: A Statistical and Legal Analysis with Implications for FDA Preemption Claims , 2008 .

[181]  Stephen S. Carey,et al.  A beginner's guide to scientific method , 1993 .

[182]  Mathew D. McCubbins,et al.  Competition in the Courtroom: When Does Expert Testimony Improve Jurors' Decisions?: When Does Expert Testimony Improve Jurors' Decisions? , 2009 .

[183]  Jonathan Barnes,et al.  The Modes of Scepticism , 1985 .

[184]  Fouad Abd-El-Khalick,et al.  Improving science teachers' conceptions of nature of science: a critical review of the literature , 2000 .

[185]  G. Easterbrook,et al.  Science and God: A Warming Trend? , 1997, Science.

[186]  H. Leitgeb,et al.  An Objective Justification of Bayesianism II: The Consequences of Minimizing Inaccuracy* , 2010, Philosophy of Science.

[187]  Zhang Yi,et al.  Determination of the Number of Principal Directions in a Biologically Plausible PCA Model , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks.

[188]  P. Medawar Induction and intuition in scientific thought , 1969 .

[189]  D. Gentner,et al.  Learning and Transfer: A General Role for Analogical Encoding , 2003 .

[190]  S. Lele,et al.  The nature of scientific evidence : statistical, philosophical, and empirical considerations , 2004 .

[191]  G. Schwarz Estimating the Dimension of a Model , 1978 .

[192]  J. D. Trout,et al.  The Philosophy of Science , 1991 .

[193]  Donald A. Berry,et al.  Interim analysis in clinical trials; the role of the likelihood principle , 1987 .

[194]  Kevin W Eva,et al.  The benefits of flexibility: the pedagogical value of instructions to adopt multifaceted diagnostic reasoning strategies , 2007, Medical education.

[195]  P. Wiener,et al.  The Encyclopedia of Philosophy. , 1968 .

[196]  Edward J. Larson,et al.  SCIENTISTS AND RELIGION IN AMERICA , 1999 .

[197]  A. Raftery Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research , 1995 .

[198]  C. Howson Hume's problem: induction and the justification of belief , 2000 .

[199]  L. Kvittingen,et al.  Reconstructing Iconic Experiments in Electrochemistry: Experiences from a History of Science Course , 2012 .

[200]  Jennifer L. Cartier,et al.  Teaching the Nature of Inquiry: Further Developments in a High School Genetics Curriculum , 2000 .

[201]  Michael C. Banner The justification of science and the rationality of religious belief , 1990 .

[202]  Trevor Pinch,et al.  Book-Review - the Golem - what Everyone Should Know about Science , 1993 .

[203]  R. Dales,et al.  Robert Grosseteste, scholar and bishop : essays in commemoration of the seventh centenary of his death , 1955 .

[204]  L. H. Hackstaff,et al.  Saint Augustine, on Free Choice of the Will , 1965 .

[205]  Z. Popovic,et al.  Crystal structure of a monomeric retroviral protease solved by protein folding game players , 2011, Nature Structural &Molecular Biology.

[206]  Peter Urbach,et al.  Francis Bacon's Philosophy of Science , 1989 .

[207]  Peter D. Hoff,et al.  A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods , 2009 .

[208]  Harold Himsworth,et al.  Scientific Knowledge and Philosophic Thought , 1986 .

[209]  Rory A. Fisher,et al.  Statistical methods and scientific inference. , 1957 .

[210]  H. Gauch Science, Worldviews, and Education , 2009 .

[211]  Cathleen C. Loving,et al.  Defining "Science" in a Multicultural World: Implications for Science Education. , 1998 .

[212]  Michael J. Sandel Justice: What's the Right Thing to Do? , 2009 .

[213]  Sharon Bertsch McGrayne,et al.  The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy , 2011 .

[214]  Norman G. Lederman Students' and teachers' conceptions of the nature of science: A review of the research , 1992 .

[215]  Eric Matthews,et al.  The Philosophy of Thomas Reid , 1989 .

[216]  Norman G. Lederman Nature of Science: Past, Present, and Future , 2013 .

[217]  Robert Nola,et al.  Theories of scientific method , 2007 .

[218]  Francisco J. Buera,et al.  Learning the Wealth of Nations , 2008 .

[219]  A. McQuarrie,et al.  Regression and Time Series Model Selection , 1998 .

[220]  E. Caldin,et al.  The power and limits of science : a philosophical study , 1949 .

[221]  James T. Robinson,et al.  Science Teaching and the Nature of Science (orig. 1965) , 1998 .

[222]  W. Dampier,et al.  A history of science and its relations with philosophy & religion , 1912 .

[223]  Norman Kaplan,et al.  The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations , 1974 .

[224]  R. Swinburne,et al.  The Philosophy of Karl Popper , 1975 .

[225]  Richard Pettigrew,et al.  An Objective Justification of Bayesianism I: Measuring Inaccuracy* , 2010, Philosophy of Science.

[226]  I. J. Good,et al.  Chance, Cause, Reason: An Inquiry Into the Nature of Scientific Evidence. , 1980 .

[227]  David B. Dunson,et al.  Bayesian Data Analysis , 2010 .

[228]  M. R. Matthews,et al.  Time for Science Education: How Teaching the History and Philosophy of Pendulum Motion can Contribute to Science Literacy , 2000 .

[229]  Mathew D. McCubbins,et al.  Competition in the Courtroom: When Does Expert Testimony Improve Jurors' Decisions? , 2009 .

[230]  HERBERT A. SIMON,et al.  The Architecture of Complexity , 1991 .

[231]  T. Irwin Aristotle's First Principles , 1988 .

[232]  G. Barnard STUDIES IN THE HISTORY OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS: IX. THOMAS BAYES'S ESSAY TOWARDS SOLVING A PROBLEM IN THE DOCTRINE OF CHANCESReproduced with the permission of the Council of the Royal Society from The Philosophical Transactions (1763), 53, 370-418 , 1958 .