Use of Problem Structuring Techniques for Option Generation: A Computer Choice Case Study

Abstract Structuring techniques developed so far for use in decision analyses have concentrated on structuring uncertainty or the decompostion of worth of alternatives while the specification of the options to be considered within the analysis has usually been considered as something which happens a priori to the decision analysis, which does not comprise activities specifically addressed to this problem. This case study of a decision analysis dealing with the choice of a set of computers to meet the overall requirements of a university psychology department demonstrates structuring techniques useful in providing a representation of a decision problem at the stage prior to the development of specific options. It shows how this representation can be used to generate alternative options, each of which could provide adequate solutions to the problem. The evaluation of individual elements within each option is discussed, together with subsequent evaluation of complete sets of options, where properties of the configuration of elements within each option may be taken into consideration. In each case a computer-based interactive decision aid, MAUD4, was used in forming preferences on the basis of these evaluations. The advantages and limitations of the option generating methodology are discussed, together with a discussion of how one can use these techniques to assess the flexibility of a potential option set in terms of the provision of a method for judging its responsiveness both (i) to future changes in requirements under the assumption that there is in the present total uncertainty about what such changes might be so they cannot be structured and (ii) to future changes in states of the world about which there is currently too much uncertainty to permit explicit act—event modelling.