Thermal regimes in a large upland salmon river: a simple model to identify the influence of landscape controls and climate change on maximum temperatures

Temperature observations at 25 sites in the 2000 km2 Dee catchment in NE Scotland were used, in conjunction with geographic information system (GIS) analysis, to identify dominant landscape controls on mean monthly maximum stream temperatures. Maximum winter stream temperatures are mainly controlled by elevation, catchment area and hill shading, whereas the maximum temperatures in summer are driven by more complex interactions, which include the influence of riparian forest cover and distance to coast. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate the catchment-wide distribution of mean weekly maximum stream temperatures for the hottest week of the 2-year observation period. The results suggested the streams most sensitive to high temperatures are small upland streams at exposed locations without any forest cover and relatively far inland, while lowland streams with riparian forest cover at locations closer to the coast exhibit a moderated thermal regime. Under current conditions, all streams provide a suitable thermal habitat for both, Atlantic salmon and brown trout. Using two climate change scenarios assuming 2·5 and 4 °C air temperature increases, respectively, temperature-sensitive zones of the stream network were identified, which could potentially have an adverse effect on the thermal habitat of Atlantic salmon and brown trout. Analysis showed that the extension of riparian forests into headwater streams has the potential to moderate changes in temperature under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  A Changing Climate for Prediction , 2007, Science.

[2]  H. Stefan,et al.  Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected under a global warming scenario , 1999 .

[3]  H. Stefan,et al.  Global Warming and Potential Changes in Fish Habitat in U.S. Streams , 2003 .

[4]  W. Gurney,et al.  Seasonal growth patterns of wild juvenile fish: partitioning variation among explanatory variables, based on individual growth trajectories of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) parr , 2005 .

[5]  J. M. Elliott,et al.  Tolerance and resistance to thermal stress in juvenile Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar , 1991 .

[6]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature/air temperature relationship : a physical interpretation , 1999 .

[7]  Patrick J. Sullivan,et al.  Spatial and temporal stream temperature prediction: Modeling nonstationary temporal covariance structures , 2004 .

[8]  Y. Zhang,et al.  SPATIAL AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY IN THE COMPONENTS OF THE RIVER HEAT BUDGET , 1997 .

[9]  Erin E Peterson,et al.  Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[10]  T. Gomi,et al.  Thermal regime of a headwater stream within a clear‐cut, coastal British Columbia, Canada , 2005 .

[11]  J. M. Elliott,et al.  The effect of the rate of temperature increase on the critical thermal maximum for parr of Atlantic salmon and brown trout , 1995 .

[12]  Desmond E. Walling,et al.  Water–air temperature relationships in a Devon river system and the role of flow , 2003 .

[13]  Roger C. Bales,et al.  Estimating Stream Temperature from Air Temperature: Implications for Future Water Quality , 2005 .

[14]  W. Gurney,et al.  Process-based modelling of decadal trends in growth, survival, and smolting of wild salmon (Salmo salar) parr in a Scottish upland stream , 2008 .

[15]  F. A. Johnson.  Stream temperatures in an Alpine area , 1971 .

[16]  J. M. Elliott,et al.  The Growth Rate of Brown Trout (Salmo trutta L.) Fed on Maximum Rations , 1975 .

[17]  Doerthe Tetzlaff,et al.  The influence of riparian woodland on stream temperatures: implications for the performance of juvenile salmonids , 2008 .

[18]  D. Hannah,et al.  Heat exchanges and temperatures within a salmon spawning stream in the Cairngorms, Scotland: seasonal and sub‐seasonal dynamics , 2004 .

[19]  R. Moore,et al.  RIPARIAN MICROCLIMATE AND STREAM TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO FOREST HARVESTING: A REVIEW 1 , 2005 .

[20]  W. Hubert,et al.  A HYPOTHESIS ABOUT FACTORS THAT AFFECT MAXIMUM SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES ACROSS MONTANE LANDSCAPES 1 , 2001 .

[21]  N. S. Urquhart,et al.  Patterns of Spatial Autocorrelation in Stream Water Chemistry , 2006, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[22]  R. D. Moore,et al.  Stream Temperature Patterns in British Columbia, Canada, Based on Routine Spot Measurements , 2006 .

[23]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures , 1998 .

[24]  R. Moore,et al.  Stream temperatures in two shaded reaches below cutblocks and logging roads: downstream cooling linked to subsurface hydrology , 2003 .

[25]  R. Leung,et al.  Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change , 2009 .

[26]  Franz Nobilis,et al.  LONG‐TERM PERSPECTIVE ON THE NATURE OF THE AIR–WATER TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIP: A CASE STUDY , 1997 .

[27]  Takashi Gomi,et al.  Headwater stream temperature response to clear‐cut harvesting with different riparian treatments, coastal British Columbia, Canada , 2006 .

[28]  D. Caissie.  The thermal regime of rivers : a review , 2006 .

[29]  M. Stone.  Cross‐Validatory Choice and Assessment of Statistical Predictions , 1976 .

[30]  R. Peterman,et al.  A Science-Based Approach for Identifying Temperature-Sensitive Streams for Rainbow Trout , 2007 .

[31]  Pete Smith,et al.  Carbon losses from soil and its consequences for land-use management. , 2007, The Science of the total environment.

[32]  Arthur J. Lembo,et al.  Predicting stream temperatures: geostatistical model comparison using alternative distance metrics , 2003 .

[33]  Kaj Sand-Jensen,et al.  Temperature in lowland Danish streams: contemporary patterns, empirical models and future scenarios , 2007 .

[34]  R. Beschta,et al.  Stream temperature increases and land use in a forested Oregon watershed , 1988 .

[35]  Bernard Bobée,et al.  A Review of Statistical Water Temperature Models , 2007 .

[36]  C. Bourque,et al.  Effects of forest harvesting on summer stream temperatures in New Brunswick, Canada: an inter-catchment, multiple-year comparison , 2001 .

[37]  D. Tetzlaff,et al.  Towards simple approaches for mean residence time estimation in ungauged basins using tracers and soil distributions , 2008 .

[38]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature dynamics: Measurements and modeling , 1993 .

[39]  André St-Hilaire,et al.  Stochastic modelling of water temperatures in a small stream using air to water relations , 1998 .

[40]  Mysore G. Satish,et al.  Modelling of maximum daily water temperatures in a small stream using air temperatures , 2001 .

[41]  D. Hannah,et al.  Groundwater–surface water interactions in upland Scottish rivers: hydrological, hydrochemical and ecological implications , 2005, Scottish Journal of Geology.

[42]  G. Helfman,et al.  MULTISCALE INFLUENCES ON PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL STREAM CONDITIONS ACROSS BLUE RIDGE LANDSCAPES 1 , 2002 .

[43]  Balaji Rajagopalan,et al.  Regression Model for Daily Maximum Stream Temperature , 2003 .

[44]  E. Jeppesen,et al.  Reaeration of Oxygen in Shallow, Macrophyte Rich Streams: I – Determination of the Reaeration Rate Coefficient , 1987 .

[45]  Aaron I. Packman,et al.  Biophysical controls on organic carbon fluxes in fluvial networks , 2008 .

[46]  David M. Hannah,et al.  A comparison of forest and moorland stream microclimate, heat exchanges and thermal dynamics , 2008 .

[47]  J. M. Elliott,et al.  A functional model for maximum growth of Atlantic Salmon parr, Salmo salar, from two populations in northwest England , 1997 .

[48]  A. Huryn,et al.  Interannual variation in discharge controls ecosystem metabolism along a grassland river continuum , 1996 .

[49]  B. Webb,et al.  Long-term changes in river temperature and the influence of climatic and hydrological factors , 2007 .

[50]  B. Efron,et al.  A Leisurely Look at the Bootstrap, the Jackknife, and , 1983 .

[51]  C. Neal,et al.  Modelling streamwater quality under varying hydrological conditions at different spatial scales , 1999 .

[52]  C. Gibbins,et al.  Variability in stream discharge and temperature: a preliminary assessment of the implications for juvenile and spawning Atlantic salmon , 2005 .

[53]  André St-Hilaire,et al.  Water temperature modelling in a small forested stream: implication of forest canopy and soil temperature , 2000 .

[54]  C. Neal,et al.  Factors regulating the spatial and temporal distribution of solute concentrations in a major river system in NE Scotland , 1998 .

[55]  J. Shao.  Linear Model Selection by Cross-validation , 1993 .

[56]  M. Hrachowitz,et al.  Seasonality of epCO2 at different scales along an integrated river continuum within the Dee basin, NE Scotland , 2009 .

[57]  Taha B. M. J. Ouarda,et al.  Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec, Canada) , 2007 .

[58]  S. Johnson,et al.  Stream temperature responses to forest harvest and debris flows in western Cascades, Oregon. , 2000 .

[59]  C. Gibbins,et al.  An Approach to Assessing Hydrological Influences on Feeding Opportunities of Juvenile Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar): A Case Study of Two Contrasting years in a Small, Nursery Stream , 2005, Hydrobiologia.

[60]  D. Tetzlaff,et al.  Sources of baseflow in larger catchments – Using tracers to develop a holistic understanding of runoff generation , 2008 .

[61]  B. Jonsson,et al.  The Growth and Food Ration of Piscivorous Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) , 1994 .

[62]  C. Soulsby,et al.  Thermal regime in the hyporheic zone of two contrasting salmonid spawning streams: ecological and hydrological implications , 2002 .

[63]  J. M. Elliott,et al.  Functional models for growth and food consumption of Atlantic salmon parr, Salmo salar, from a Norwegian river , 2001 .

[64]  David M. Hannah,et al.  The influence of riparian woodland on the spatial and temporal variability of stream water temperatures in an upland salmon stream , 2004 .

[65]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  STREAM TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION FROM AIR TEMPERATURE , 1993 .

[66]  D. Hannah,et al.  Hydrological influences on hyporheic water quality: implications for salmon egg survival , 2004 .

[67]  M. M. Cox,et al.  A spatially explicit network-based model for estimating stream temperature distribution , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..