Beyond demographics: Predicting student attrition within the Bachelor of Arts degree

This paper examines factors linked to first year attrition within the Bachelor of Arts (BA) degree at an Australian university. Drawing on a broad range of institutional data, the authors considered correlations between attrition and several variables. Our research revealed the need to move beyond analysis of geo-demographic factors towards indicators of student choice and educational achievement. While few demographic factors were found to be strong indicators of attrition, two other factors were clearly correlated. These factors – course preference, and first year educational performance – were significant predictors of attrition. Because subject failure is the single strongest predictor of attrition, and because the BA offers a wide range of subjects, developing strategies to ensure consistency and quality across those subjects is imperative.

[1]  Robin Naylor,et al.  Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students , 2001 .

[2]  J. McMillan,et al.  Course Change and Attrition from Higher Education. Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth. Research Report 39. , 2005 .

[3]  P. Miller,et al.  The determinants of students' tertiary academic success , 2005 .

[4]  J. McMillan,et al.  Course change and attrition from higher education , 2005 .

[5]  Ian R. Dobson,et al.  Secondary Schooling, Tertiary Entry Ranks and University Performance , 2005 .

[6]  Fran Ferrier,et al.  Stay, Play Or Give It Away? Students Continuing, Changing or Leaving University Study in First Year. , 2006 .

[7]  Glenda Crosling,et al.  Improving Student Retention in Higher Education: The Role of Teaching and Learning , 2007 .

[8]  P. Miller,et al.  A NATIONAL STUDY OF STUDENTS' PERFORMANCE AT UNIVERSITY , 2007 .

[9]  Stijn Broecke,et al.  Ethnicity and degree attainment , 2007 .

[10]  Leonid Grebennikov,et al.  University of Western Sydney Students at Risk: Profile and Opportunities for Change. , 2008 .

[11]  D. Bradley,et al.  Review of Australian Higher Education: final report , 2008 .

[12]  Mantz Yorke,et al.  The first-year experience in higher education in the UK:final report , 2008 .

[13]  R. James,et al.  IMPROVING SELECTION FOR TERTIARY EDUCATION PLACES IN VICTORIA , 2009 .

[14]  Tony Adams,et al.  THE HOBSONS RETENTION PROJECT: CONTEXT AND FACTOR ANALYSIS REPORT , 2010 .

[15]  R. James,et al.  Selection and Participation in Higher Education University Selection in Support of Student Success and Diversity of Participation , 2011 .

[16]  Elizabeth Webster,et al.  Higher education base funding review: final report , 2011 .

[17]  Lesley Vidovich,et al.  “Transforming Australia’s Higher Education System”: New Accountability Policies for a Global Era? , 2012 .

[18]  Vincent Tinto,et al.  Completing College: Rethinking Institutional Action , 2012 .

[19]  Karen J. Nelson,et al.  A good practice guide : Safeguarding student learning engagement , 2013 .

[20]  Andrew Norton,et al.  Mapping Australian higher education , 2016 .