Building a Resilient UK Energy System

Any views expressed are those of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily represent the view of UKERC or the Research Councils. We are grateful to the Research Councils for their support. The UK Energy Research Centre carries out world-class research into sustainable future energy systems. It is the hub of UK energy research and the gateway between the UK and the international energy research communities. Our interdisciplinary, whole systems research informs UK policy development and research strategy. Introduction 1. Climate change and energy security have come to dominate the energy policy agenda. Concerns about energy security in the UK have been driven by the loss of self-sufficiency in oil and natural gas and a growing dependency on imports. 2. This report explores ways of enhancing the " resilience " of the UK energy system to withstand external shocks and examines how such measures interact with those designed to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. The concept of resilience is explored and a set of " indicators " is developed to define quantitatively the characteristics of a resilient energy system. In the report we systematically test the response of the UK energy system under different scenarios to hypothetical shocks. These are all assumed to involve the loss of gas infrastructure. We then assess mitigating measures which can help to reduce the impact of these shocks and test their cost effectiveness using an insurance analogy. 3. The report covers one workstream in the larger UK Energy 2050 project conducted by UKERC. The wider project is described comprehensively in a Synthesis Report (Skea et al., 2009) and in a book exploring the project and a wider range of policy issues (Skea et al., 2011). In particular, the scenarios describing broad energy system change which frame the analysis in this report are covered only briefly. Readers interested in underlying assumptions about energy demand and supply are referred to these other publications. 4. We have used three energy models to conduct this analysis. The first is the MARKAL-MED model, a linear optimisation model which covers the entire UK energy system and can address interactions between different parts of the energy system. 5. The second is the WASP electricity generation planning model originally developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is used to explore, in more detail, the levels of generation investment needed to maintain reliable supplies. It is a cost minimising model. …