Development and testing of models for predicting crown fire rate of spread in conifer forest stands

The rate of spread of crown fires advancing over level to gently undulating terrain was modeled through nonlinear regression analysis based on an experimental data set pertaining primarily to boreal forest fuel types. The data set covered a significant spectrum of fuel complex and fire behavior characteristics. Crown fire rate of spread was modeled separately for fires spreading in active and passive crown fire regimes. The active crown fire rate of spread model encompassing the effects of 10-m open wind speed, estimated fine fuel moisture content, and canopy bulk den- sity explained 61% of the variability in the data set. Passive crown fire spread was modeled through a correction factor based on a criterion for active crowning related to canopy bulk density. The models were evaluated against independent data sets originating from experimental fires. The active crown fire rate of spread model predicted 42% of the inde- pendent experimental crown fire data with an error lower then 25% and a mean absolute percent error of 26%. While the models have some shortcomings and areas in need of improvement, they can be readily utilized in support of fire management decision making and other fire research studies. Resume : Le taux de propagation des feux de cimes se propageant en terrain plat ou legerement onduleux a ete mode- lise en utilisant l'analyse de regression non lineaire a partir d'un ensemble de donnees experimentales portant principa- lement sur les types de combustibles rencontres en foret boreale. L'ensemble de donnees couvrait une importante gamme de complexes de combustibles et de caracteristiques de comportement du feu. Le taux de propagation des feux de cimes a ete modelise separement pour les feux se propageant selon des regimes de feu de cimes dependant ou pas-

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