Multi-attribute Utility Analysis

Multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) has emerged as a powerful tool for materials selection and evaluation. An operations research technique, MAUA has been used in a wide range of engineering areas, of which materials science and engineering is one of the more recent. Utility analysis affords a rational method of materials selection which avoids many of the fundamental logical difficulties of many widely used alternative approaches. However, MAUA has traditionally been used in materials selection problems only in which there is certainty regarding the attribute levels of the alternatives. For many new technologies this is not the case. Another operations research technique, subjective probability assessment (SPA), can be used to address this issues. SPA makes it possible to develop a distribution of attribute levels when there is uncertainty in these values. These probability distributions can be used in conjunction with MAUA to provide a consistent framework for making materials selection decisions. Furthermore, the use of these techniques extends beyond the problem of materials selection into the more speculative areas of materials competitiveness and market demand, even in cases involving new, as of yet unproven technologies. Materials Selection The selection of a material system for an engineering application requires the designer to find the best match between the technical and economic requirements of the application and the performance and manufacturing characteristics of the available material alternatives. The identification of this best match is frequently a difficult problem, relying upon the designer's accumulated experience, expertise, and judgment. Materials selection has emerged as a major problem for engineers. The available set of materials, rapidly growing both in type and number, has vastly expanded the number of possibilities meriting serious consideration for many engineering applications. At one time, an engineer could rely upon engineering handbooks, journals, and his experience to select the appropriate material for an application. Today, however, engineers are forced to look for systematic techniques for managing and analyzing engineering data on the growing array of materials. At the same time, the suppliers of materials face an equally perplexing problem. While advances in materials science continue to expand the horizons of material performance, the material developer finds it increasingly difficult to establish what constitutes a desirable material. By its nature, the designer's process of material selection happens outside the ken of the suppliers of the material alternatives. Because the suppliers are frequently isolated from this process, they receive little insight into the rationale …