Harmonic analysis of climatological temperature over Antarctica: present day and greenhouse warming perspectives

On the basis of ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR) and simulations from CCCma, CCSM, CSIRO, HadCM3, MIROC-MEDRES and GFDL, which support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4), we demonstrated that the amplitude of the annual and the semi-annual harmonics delivered by the ERA40 and NNR is dominated by distinct seasonal variability. The maximum first harmonic amplitude of near surface temperature 2-metre air temperature (t2m) according the NNR is located over the Plateau of East Antarctica, whereas analyses for ERA40 show maximum amplitude over the west Antarctic ice sheet. The spatial pattern of the first harmonic of t2m in NNR more closely corresponds to station observations, suggesting that the seasonal cycle of t2m over Antarctica may be biased in ERA-40. A comparison between the global climate models (GCMs) and NNR demonstrates that the models satisfactorily simulate the amplitude of the first and second harmonics; however, the modelling results differ among themselves in terms of the amplitude values. Larger seasonal variability is identified for CCCma, HadCM3 and MIROC-MEDRES with values as high as 20 °C over the Antarctic plateau. We have further identified that the CSIRO GCM does not reproduce the seasonal amplitude of t2m as compared to other models, which is primarily due to its overestimation of the cloud cover and weak seasonal changes of precipitation. Calculations of the harmonic analysis based upon greenhouse warming (GW) conditions reveal that there is no substantial seasonal difference between the amplitude of the first harmonic as projected by GW and present day (PD) simulations over the Antarctic continent. Over the polar ocean, however, the amplitude of the first harmonic is reduced in all climate models under future conditions. In order to narrow down the uncertainties on future climate projections, analyses of the cloud forcing which include the short- and long-wave radiation and the surface mass balance (SMB) may provide substantial information on the cause of the discrepancies as simulated by climate models over the Antarctic region. Copyright  2010 Royal Meteorological Society

[1]  W. Connolley,et al.  An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models , 2007 .

[2]  S. Klein,et al.  GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics , 2006 .

[3]  J. Walsh,et al.  A Synthesis of Antarctic Temperatures , 2007 .

[4]  G. Marshall,et al.  Southern hemisphere circulation anomalies associated with extreme Antarctic peninsula winter temperatures , 1998 .

[5]  D. Legates,et al.  Crop identification using harmonic analysis of time-series AVHRR NDVI data , 2002 .

[6]  Massimo Menenti,et al.  Mapping vegetation-soil-climate complexes in southern Africa using temporal Fourier analysis of NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data , 2000 .

[7]  J. Bjerknes.  Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction , 1964 .

[8]  Keith M. Hines,et al.  Artificial surface pressure trends in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica , 2000 .

[9]  H. Loon.  The Half-Yearly Oscillations in Middle and High Southern Latitudes and the Coreless Winter , 1967 .

[10]  H. Helson.  Harmonic Analysis , 1983 .

[11]  G. Meehl.  A Reexamination of the Mechanism of the Semiannual Oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere , 1991 .

[12]  D. Vaughan,et al.  Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica , 1999 .

[13]  M. Broeke.  On the Interpretation of Antarctic Temperature Trends. , 2000 .

[14]  G. Boer,et al.  Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations , 2001 .

[15]  Hiroyasu Hasumi,et al.  K-1 Coupled GCM (MIROC) Description , 2004 .

[16]  V. Pope,et al.  The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3 , 2000 .

[17]  A. Timmermann,et al.  An Initial Intercomparison of Atmospheric and Oceanic Climatology for the ICE-5 G and ICE-4 G Models of LGM , 2006 .

[18]  M. Holland,et al.  Twentieth century simulation of the southern hemisphere climate in coupled models. Part 1: large scale circulation variability , 2006 .

[19]  A. Weaver,et al.  The Role of Poleward-Intensifying Winds on Southern Ocean Warming , 2007 .

[20]  M. R. van den Broeke,et al.  Seasonal cycles of Antarctic surface energy balance from automatic weather stations , 2005, Annals of Glaciology.

[21]  M. Broeke.  The semi-annual oscillation and Antarctic climate. Part 1: influence on near surface temperatures (1957–79) , 1998, Antarctic Science.

[22]  D. Bromwich,et al.  Strong Trends in the Skill of the ERA-40 and NCEP–NCAR Reanalyses in the High and Midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, 1958–2001* , 2004 .

[23]  Keith W. Dixon,et al.  Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Circulations in IPCC Coupled Model Control Simulations , 2006 .

[24]  Paul J. Kushner,et al.  Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Response to Global Warming , 2001 .

[25]  J. Turner,et al.  The performance of the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) in high southern latitudes , 2006 .

[26]  H. B. Gordon,et al.  The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model , 2002 .

[27]  W. G. Strand,et al.  Climate Change Projections for the Twenty-First Century and Climate Change Commitment in the CCSM3 , 2006 .

[28]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction , 1995 .

[29]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[30]  M. Holland,et al.  Twentieth century simulation of the southern hemisphere climate in coupled models. Part II: sea ice conditions and variability , 2006 .

[31]  G. P. Cressman.  AN OPERATIONAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SYSTEM , 1959 .

[32]  D. Rind.  Components of the ice age circulation , 1987 .

[33]  D. Bromwich,et al.  ADVANCES IN DESCRIBING RECENT ANTARCTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY , 2008 .

[34]  Xiaojun Yuan,et al.  Antarctic sea ice extent variability and its global connectivity , 2000 .

[35]  W. Peltier,et al.  Climate Anomalies Induced by the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations: Glacial Maximum and Present-Day Perspectives , 2008 .

[36]  G. Meehl,et al.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, edited by , 2022 .

[37]  Vladimir I. Clue.  Harmonic analysis , 2004, 2004 IEEE Electro/Information Technology Conference.

[38]  Ş. Kartal,et al.  Harmonic analysis of precipitation, pressure and temperature over Turkey , 1997 .

[39]  Michael Allaby,et al.  Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate , 2002 .

[40]  Keith W. Dixon,et al.  GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part IV: Idealized climate response , 2006 .

[41]  W. Cai,et al.  Trends in Southern Hemisphere Circulation in IPCC AR4 Models over 1950 99: Ozone Depletion versus Greenhouse Forcing , 2007 .

[42]  J. King.  Recent climate variability in the vicinity of the antarctic peninsula , 1994 .

[43]  Cuihua Li,et al.  Climate Modes in Southern High Latitudes and Their Impacts on Antarctic Sea Ice , 2008 .

[44]  T. Fichefet,et al.  Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice-ocean system: the role of the thermal and mechanical forcing , 2005 .

[45]  John Turner,et al.  Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century , 2008 .

[46]  Peter R. Gent.  Preface to Special Issue on Community Climate System Model (CCSM) , 2006 .

[47]  Konrad Steffen,et al.  Evaluation of Polar MM5 simulations of Greenland's atmospheric circulation , 2001 .