Nonparametric approach for estimating effects of ENSO on return periods of droughts

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is a part of complex interactions that couple the surface of the ocean and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. El Niño and La Niña can cause floods in some areas and droughts in others. It has been found that there are strong connections between ENSO and intense drought around the world. In this study, the effect of ENSO on the drought return period in a large basin is examined by a nonparametric method, which is used for estimating univariate and bivariate probability density functions of drought characteristics. It is shown that a nonparametric kernel estimator is faithful to estimate a probability distribution, also useful to evaluate the relation between ENSO and the drought recurrence interval.

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