Modeling lactic acid bacteria growth in vacuum-packaged cooked meat emulsions stored at three temperatures

Abstract The effect of three storage temperatures on the growth of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in cooked meat emulsions packaged in low oxygen permeability film was investigated. Bacterial counts at 0°C, 8°C and 15°C were fitted to the Gompertz equation and the maximum specific growth rate ( μ ) was obtained as derived parameter, this value being maximal at 15°C (1.16 days −1 ). Arrhenius and root square models were used to describe the effect of different storage temperatures on maximum specific growth rate. The models were statistically validated and the mean square error (MSE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), bias factor and accuracy factor were used to evaluate and compare the performance of predictive models. The effect of temperature was better interpreted by root square model than by Arrhenius type model, showing the least deviations from the observed value, which would lead to “fail-safe” prediction of shelf-life. Since the final number of LAB did not show significant changes with storage temperature after 25 days, a temperature abuse during storage will not result in an increase of spoilage by LAB.