An analogue‐dynamical long‐range numerical weather prediction system incorporating historical evolution

It is convenient to regard a predicted dynamical field as a small disturbance superimposed on a historical analogue field. A Statistical technique can then be used in combination with a dynamical forecast. Using this approach, a coupled atmosphere/earth-surface analogue-dynamical model has been formulated and applied to seasonal prediction. This approach facilitates the use of information contained both in the historical data-set and in the initial field in improving the dynamical model (based solely on the latter) and shows some predictive skill.