THE FUTURE IMPACT OF ICTs ON ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

The mission of IPTS is to provide techno-economic analyses in support of the European policy-making process. IPTS' prime objectives are to monitor and analyse science and technology developments, their cross-sectoral impact, their interrelationship with the socioeconomic context and their implications for future policy development. IPTS operates international networks, pools the expertise of high-level advisors, and presents information in a timely and synthesised fashion to policy makers. The orientation and contents of this report cannot be taken as indicating the position of the European Commission or its services. The European Commission retains the copyright of this publication. Reproduction is authorised, except for commercial purposes, if the source is mentioned. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information in this report. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) not only constitute an industry in their own right but they also pervade all sectors of the economy, where they act as integrating and enabling technologies. ICTs have a profound impact on society, and their production and use have important consequences for development in economic, social and environmental areas. The extent to which ICTs also affect progress towards environmental sustainability in an economy is an issue that is still under debate. There is, however, increasing evidence that significant opportunities and threats are involved. These deserve more research and more attention in energy, climate change and technology policies. Commission) has commissioned a study entitled 'The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability', which aims to explore (qualitatively) and to assess (quantitatively) the way that ICTs will influence environmental sustainability between now and 2020. This study is the first quantitative projection to be carried out on how ICTs could affect the environment in the European Union. In order to estimate the effects of ICTs on a set of five environmental indicators, the project team adopted an innovative methodology combining qualitative scenario-building and quantitative modelling. The general conclusion was that ICTs can modify the value of these five indicators. ICTs could improve the situation, reinforcing positive effects in the environment, or they could worsen the situation. This suggests that environmental policies have to be designed to ensure that ICT applications make a beneficial contribution to environmental outcomes, and, at the same time, suppress rebound effects. There are significant opportunities for improving environmental sustainability through ICTs, which can rationalise energy management in housing …