Factors predicting the presence of esophageal or gastric varices in patients with advanced liver disease

Objective:Recently it has been recommended that all cirrhotic patients without previous variceal hemorrhage undergo endoscopic screening to detect varices and that those with large varices should be treated with β-blockers (American College of Gastroenterology guidelines). However, endoscopic screening only of patients at highest risk for varices may be the most cost effective.Methods:Ninety-eight patients without a history of variceal hemorrhage underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy as part of a liver transplant evaluation. Univariate/multivariate analysis was used to evaluate associations between the presence of varices and patient characteristics including etiology of liver disease, Child–Pugh class, physical findings (spider angiomata, splenomegaly, and ascites), encephalopathy, laboratory parameters (prothrombin time, albumin, bilirubin, BUN, creatinine, and platelets), and abdominal ultrasound findings (portal vein diameter/flow, splenomegaly, and ascites).Results:The causes of cirrhosis among the 67 men and 31 women (mean age, 48 yr) included 28% Hepatitis C/alcoholism, 25% Hepatitis C, 13% alcoholism, 9% primary sclerosing cholangitis/primary biliary cirrhosis, 9% cryptogenic, 6% Hepatitis B, 1% Hepatitis B and C, and 9% other. Patients were Child–Pugh class A 34%, B 51%, and C 15%. Endoscopic findings included esophageal varices in 68% of patients (30% were large), gastric varices in 15%, and portal hypertensive gastropathy in 58%. Platelet count <88,000 was the only parameter identified by univariate/multivariate analysis (p < 0.05) as associated with the presence of large esophageal varices (odds ratio 5.5; 95% confidence interval 1.8–20.6) or gastric varices (odds ratio 5; 95% confidence interval 1.4–23).Conclusions:Platelet count <88,000 is associated with the presence of esophagogastric varices. A large prospective study is needed to verify and validate these findings and may allow identification of a group of patients who would most benefit from endoscopic screening for varices.