RETURN TO THE PEAK? --TRANSPORTATION PLANNING METHODS. PROCEEDINGS OF SEMINAR C HELD AT THE PTRC SUMMER ANNUAL MEETING, BATH UNIVERSITY ENGLAND, 7-11 SEPTEMBER 1987, VOLUME P290

The paper gives a short overview of the existing literature on the effects of congestion on choice of time of travel and presents and discusses methods to predict these effects. The paper presents the results of two studies looking at the effects of congestion on choice of time of travel. First a short overview will be given of available evidence, including empirical findings and some theoretical analyses. Then we look at methods of predicting responses in choice of time of travel to existing and future bottleneck situations. We distinguish between two types of methods: (1) rule of thumb methods, predicting arrival time pattern changes at individual bottlenecks from sparse information; (2) comprehensive methods, allowing network-wide forecasts of changes in choice of time travel, including possible interactions between multiple bottlenecks, and their effects on assigned traffic volumes. The methods are presented in some detail, and their applicability and approximate accuracy will be discussed. All methods are illustrated by a practical example where they are applied to a real-life case of capacity expansion, which has been monitored in a before-and-after study. The predicted time of travel changes are compared with actual changes observed.(a) for the covering abstract of the seminar see IRRD 816404.