The effect of place on voting behavior: The case of the Arizona proposition to legalize recreational marijuana

In 2020, Arizonans approved Proposition 207, the Smart and Safe Arizona Act, which legalized recreational marijuana sales. Previous research has typically used non‐spatial survey data to understand marijuana legalization voting patterns. However, voting behavior can, in part, be shaped by geographic context, or place, which is unaccounted for in aspatial survey data. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression to analyze how place shaped Proposition 207 voting behavior, independently of demographic variations across space. We find significant spatial variability in the sensitivity of voting for Proposition 207 to changes in several of the predictor variables of opposition and support for recreational marijuana legalization. We argue that local statistical modeling approaches provide a more in‐depth understanding of ballot measure voting behavior than the current use of global models.Branton, Regina, and Ronald J. McGauvran. 2018. “Mary Jane Rocks the Vote: The Impact of Climate Context on Support for Cannabis Initiatives.” Politics & Policy 46(2): 209–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12248.Brekken, Katheryn C., and Vanessa M. Fenley. 2020. “Part of the Narrative: Generic News Frames in the U.S. Recreational Marijuana Policy Subsystem.” Politics & Policy 49(1): 6–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12388.Fisk, Jonathan M., Joseph A. Vonasek, and Elvis Davis. 2018. “‘Pot'reneurial Politics: The Budgetary Highs and Lows of Recreational Marijuana Policy Innovation.” Politics & Policy 46(2): 189–208. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12246.

[1]  Taylor M. Oshan,et al.  Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression , 2023 .

[2]  R. Bevins,et al.  Attitudes in 2020 Towards Medical and Recreational Marijuana in Prohibitionist Nebraska , 2022, Journal of Drug Issues.

[3]  Taylor M. Oshan,et al.  On the notion of ‘bandwidth’ in geographically weighted regression models of spatially varying processes , 2022, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[4]  Burrel Vann Jr,et al.  Direct democracy and the adoption of recreational marijuana legalization in the United States, 2012-2019. , 2022, The International journal on drug policy.

[5]  A. Fotheringham,et al.  The spatial and temporal dynamics of voter preference determinants in four U.S. presidential elections (2008–2020) , 2021, Trans. GIS.

[6]  D. Payán,et al.  County‐Level Recreational Marijuana Policies and Local Policy Changes in Colorado and Washington State (2012‐2019) , 2021, The Milbank quarterly.

[7]  A. Fotheringham,et al.  Are We Modelling Spatially Varying Processes or Non‐linear Relationships? , 2021 .

[8]  J. Miron,et al.  Ending the War on Drugs Is an Essential Step Toward Racial Justice , 2021, The American journal of bioethics : AJOB.

[9]  D. A. Berman,et al.  Ensuring Marijuana Reform Is Effective Criminal Justice Reform , 2021 .

[10]  A. Stewart Fotheringham,et al.  Scale, Context, and Heterogeneity: A Spatial Analytical Perspective on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election , 2021 .

[11]  A. Comber,et al.  Using geographically weighted models to explore how crowdsourced landscape perceptions relate to landscape physical characteristics , 2020, Landscape and Urban Planning.

[12]  Zahratu Shabrina,et al.  Short‐Term Rental Platform in the Urban Tourism Context: A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a Multiscale GWR (MGWR) Approaches , 2020, Geographical Analysis.

[13]  M. Wen,et al.  Impact of recreational marijuana legalization on crime: Evidence from Oregon , 2020 .

[14]  A. Fotheringham,et al.  Local modelling of U.S. mortality rates: A multiscale geographically weighted regression approach , 2020 .

[15]  Daniel G. Orenstein.  Preventing Industry Abuse of Cannabis Equity Programs , 2020 .

[16]  C. Mosher,et al.  County-Level Differences in Support for Recreational Cannabis on the Ballot , 2020 .

[17]  Brian S. Hendrickson,et al.  Cannabis use among U.S. adolescents in the era of marijuana legalization: a review of changing use patterns, comorbidity, and health correlates , 2020, International review of psychiatry.

[18]  A. Stewart Fotheringham,et al.  Examining the influences of air quality in China's cities using multi‐scale geographically weighted regression , 2019, Trans. GIS.

[19]  V. Zvonarev,et al.  The Public Health Concerns of Marijuana Legalization: An Overview of Current Trends , 2019, Cureus.

[20]  Bryan E. Denham.  Attitudes toward legalization of marijuana in the United States, 1986-2016: Changes in determinants of public opinion. , 2019, The International journal on drug policy.

[21]  Courtney Lewis.  Confronting Cannabis: Legalization on Native Nation Lands and the Impacts of Differential Federal Enforcement , 2019, American Indian Quarterly.

[22]  A. Stewart Fotheringham,et al.  mgwr: A Python Implementation of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression for Investigating Process Spatial Heterogeneity and Scale , 2018, ISPRS Int. J. Geo Inf..

[23]  Loren Collingwood,et al.  Evaluating ballot initiative support for legalised marijuana: The case of Washington. , 2018, The International journal on drug policy.

[24]  Regina Branton,et al.  Mary Jane Rocks the Vote: The Impact of Climate Context on Support for Cannabis Initiatives: MARY JANE ROCKS THE VOTE , 2018 .

[25]  A. Stewart Fotheringham,et al.  Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) , 2017 .

[26]  Kenneth M. Johnson,et al.  Political Polarization along the Rural-Urban Continuum? The Geography of the Presidential Vote, 2000–2016 , 2017 .

[27]  J. Niederdeppe,et al.  Public perceptions of arguments supporting and opposing recreational marijuana legalization. , 2017, Preventive medicine.

[28]  W. Kerr,et al.  Support for marijuana legalization in the US state of Washington has continued to increase through 2016. , 2017, Drug and alcohol dependence.

[29]  J. Dilley,et al.  Community-level policy responses to state marijuana legalization in Washington State. , 2017, The International journal on drug policy.

[30]  Michael P. McDonald,et al.  When Boundaries CollideConstructing a National Database of Demographic and Voting Statistics , 2017 .

[31]  W. Kerr,et al.  Marijuana Policy Opinions in Washington State Since Legalization , 2016, Contemporary drug problems.

[32]  Danielle E. Ramo,et al.  Medical marijuana legalization and cigarette and marijuana co-use in adolescents and adults. , 2016, Drug and alcohol dependence.

[33]  M. Kegler,et al.  Assessing the overlap between tobacco and marijuana: Trends in patterns of co-use of tobacco and marijuana in adults from 2003-2012. , 2015, Addictive behaviors.

[34]  H. Weaver.  Urban and Indigenous: The Challenges of being a Native American in the City , 2012 .

[35]  H. Schoenfeld,et al.  The War on Drugs, the Politics of Crime, and Mass Incarceration in the United States , 2012 .

[36]  M. Asbridge,et al.  Acute cannabis consumption and motor vehicle collision risk: systematic review of observational studies and meta-analysis , 2012, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[37]  A. L. Nielsen.  Americans' Attitudes toward Drug-Related Issues from 1975–2006: The Roles of Period and Cohort Effects , 2010 .

[38]  P. Reuter,et al.  Do Citizens Know Whether Their State Has Decriminalized Marijuana? Assessing the Perceptual Component of Deterrence Theory , 2009 .

[39]  Theodore R. Curry,et al.  Sentencing young minority males for drug offenses , 2008 .

[40]  C. Spohn,et al.  Race/Ethnicity and Sentencing Outcomes Among Drug Offenders in North Carolina , 2008 .

[41]  G. Dillingham,et al.  Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives: The Partisan Impact of Spatial Proximity to the U.S.-Mexico Border , 2007 .

[42]  J. Concato,et al.  Effects of marijuana smoking on pulmonary function and respiratory complications: a systematic review. , 2007, Archives of internal medicine.

[43]  E. Jensen,et al.  Social Consequences of the War on Drugs: the Legacy of Failed Policy , 2004 .

[44]  Regina Branton.  Examining Individual-Level Voting Behavior on State Ballot Propositions , 2003 .

[45]  L. Pasko.  Villain or Victim: Regional Variation and Ethnic Disparity in Federal Drug Offense Sentencing , 2002 .

[46]  D. Abrams,et al.  Medical marijuana: tribulations and trials. , 1998, Journal of psychoactive drugs.

[47]  J. Galliher,et al.  The Puzzle of the Social Origins of the Marihuana Tax Act of 1937 , 1977 .

[48]  G. Raab,et al.  Voting Research and the Population Census 1918–71: Surrogate Data for Constituency Analyses , 1974 .

[49]  D. F. Musto.  The Marihuana Tax Act of 1937. , 1972, Archives of general psychiatry.

[50]  Norman N. Gill,et al.  An Analysis of the 1932 Presidential Vote in Chicago , 1935, American Political Science Review.

[51]  William F. Ogburn,et al.  How Women Vote , 1919 .

[52]  Mathew Swinburne,et al.  State Efforts to Create an Inclusive Marijuana Industry in the Shadow of the Unjust War on Drugs , 2020 .

[53]  Steven Bender.  Joint Reform?: The Interplay of State, Federal, and Hemispheric Regulation of Recreational Marijuana and the Failed War on Drugs , 2013 .

[54]  J. P. Walters.  Race and the War on Drugs , 1994 .