Parametric methods for probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance

This paper proposes two parametric probabilistic forecast methods using beta and two-sided power distributions to predict solar irradiance. It also evaluates their performance. To improve their performance metrics a hybrid procedure based on the beta transformed linear opinion pool is utilized. Our simulations show that these methods – despite their simple structure – can effectively forecast solar irradiance and accurately describe its stochastic characteristics. The proposed approach is flexible and could be extended to many different point forecast methods which otherwise minimize RMSE or MSE.

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